Dr. Lara-Peña, Carlos

Marine mussels are one of the most important sources of cultivated shellfish worldwide, particularly among middle- and low-income countries where they are a key food source for coastal communities. Climate Change is bound to have a large impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for the mussel species cultivated throughout the world. To examine these impacts on mussel aquaculture and global food security, we evaluated the distribution of suitable current and future habitats for the six more widely cultivated mussel species under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario using ecological niche modelling. Occurrence records were obtained from online databases and the literature. The models had a good performance in predicting the current distribution of the six study species. In future scenarios, suitable mussel habitats were projected to shift poleward, with gains at higher latitudes and losses at lower latitudes. By 2050, significant impacts were projected along the Mediterranean coast for Mytilus galloprovincialis, an important mariculture species in Europe, and in Southeast Asia for the tropical green mussel Perna viridis. Overall, our predictions suggested that range shifts could create opportunities to expand mussel farming to higher latitudes, yet loss of suitable habitat in historically productive growing areas could disrupt current mussel aquaculture regions, highlighting the need for immediate action. Therefore, achieving a more nuanced understanding of the spatial changes in the geographic distribution of suitable habitats should be the first step in increasing the adaptive capacity of the mussel aquaculture sector, and ensuring the future supply of this key source of aquafood.

Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat‐forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio‐ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

Using 19 years of remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we examined the effects of climatic variability on terrestrial vegetation of six protected areas along southwestern South America, from the semiarid edge of the Atacama desert to southern Patagonia (30∘S–51∘S). The relationship between satellite phenology and climate indices, namely MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and SAM (Southern Annular Mode) were established using statistical analyses for non-stationary patterns. The annual mode of phenological activity fluctuated in strength through time from the semiarid region to the border of southern Patagonia. Concomitantly, enhanced synchrony between EVI and climatic oscillations appeared over interannual cycles. Cross correlations revealed that variability in MEI was the lead predictor of EVI fluctuations over scales shorter than 4 months at lower latitudes and for the most poleward study site. The PDO was correlated with EVI over lags longer than 4 months at low latitude sites, while the SAM showed relationships with EVI only for sites located around 40∘S. Our results indicate that the long-term phenological variability of the vegetation within protected areas along southwestern South America is controlled by processes linked to climate indices and that their influence varies latitudinally. Further studies over longer time scales will be needed to improve our understanding the impacts of climate change on vegetation condition and its effect over phenological variability.