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Dr. Astudillo-Defru, Nicola
Research Outputs
Three Red Suns in the Sky: A Transiting, Terrestrial Planet in a Triple M-dwarf System at 6.9 pc
2019, Winters, Jennifer G., Medina, Amber A., Irwin, Jonathan M., Charbonneau, David, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Horch, Elliott P., Eastman, Jason D., Vrijmoet, Eliot Halley, Henry, Todd J., Diamond-Lowe, Hannah, Winston, Elaine, Barclay, Thomas, Bonfils, Xavier, Ricker, George R., Vanderspek, Roland, Latham, David W., Seager, Sara, Winn, Joshua N., Jenkins, Jon M., Udry, Stéphane, Twicken, Joseph D., Teske, Johanna K., Tenenbaum, Peter, Pepe, Francesco, Murgas, Felipe, Muirhead, Philip S., Mink, Jessica, Lovis, Christophe, Levine, Alan M., Lépine, Sébastien, Jao, Wei-Chun, Henze1, Cristopher E., Furész, Gábor, Forveille, Thierry, Figueira, Pedro, Esquerdo, Gilbert A., Dressing, Courtney D., Díaz, Rodrigo F., Delfosse, Xavier, Burke, Christopher J., Bouchy, François, Berlind, Perry, Almenara, José Manuel
We present the discovery from Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data of LTT 1445Ab. At a distance of 6.9 pc, it is the second nearest transiting exoplanet system found to date, and the closest one known for which the primary is an M dwarf. The host stellar system consists of three mid-to-late M dwarfs in a hierarchical configuration, which are blended in one TESS pixel. We use MEarth data and results from the Science Processing Operations Center data validation report to determine that the planet transits the primary star in the system. The planet has a radius of -+ 1.38 0.120.13 RÅ, an orbital period of -+ 5.35882 0.000310.00030 days, and an equilibrium temperature of -+ 433 2728 K. With radial velocities from the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher, we place a 3σ upper mass limit of 8.4 MÅ on the planet. LTT 1445Ab provides one of the best opportunities to date for the spectroscopic study of the atmosphere of a terrestrial world. We also present a detailed characterization of the host stellar system. We use high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging to rule out the presence of any other close stellar or brown dwarf companions. Nineteen years of photometric monitoring of A and BC indicate a moderate amount of variability, in agreement with that observed in the TESS light-curve data. We derive a preliminary astrometric orbit for the BC pair that reveals an edge-on and eccentric configuration. The presence of a transiting planet in this system hints that the entire system may be co-planar, implying that the system may have formed from the early fragmentation of an individual protostellar core.
The high-energy environment and atmospheric escape of the mini-Neptune K2-18 b
2020, dos Santos, Leonardo A., Ehrenreich, David, Bourrier, Vincent, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Bonfils, Xavier, Forget, François, Lovis, Christophe, Pepe, Francesco, Udry, Stéphane
K2-18 b is a transiting mini-Neptune that orbits a nearby (38 pc), cool M3 dwarf and is located inside its region of temperate irradiation. We report on the search for hydrogen escape from the atmosphere K2-18 b using Lyman-α transit spectroscopy with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph instrument installed on the Hubble Space Telescope. We analyzed the time-series of fluxes of the stellar Lyman-α emission of K2-18 in both its blue- and redshifted wings. We found that the average blueshifted emission of K2-18 decreases by 67% ± 18% during the transit of the planet compared to the pre-transit emission, tentatively indicating the presence of H atoms escaping vigorously and being blown away by radiation pressure. This interpretation is not definitive because it relies on one partial transit. Based on the reconstructed Lyman-α emission of K2-18, we estimate an EUV irradiation in the range 101 − 102 erg s−1 cm−2 and a total escape rate on the order of 108 g s−1. The inferred escape rate suggests that the planet will lose only a small fraction (< 1%) of its mass and retain its volatile-rich atmosphere during its lifetime. More observations are needed to rule out stellar variability effects, confirm the in-transit absorption, and better assess the atmospheric escape and high-energy environment of K2-18 b.
A second planet transiting LTT 1445A and a determination of the masses of both worlds
2022, Winters, Jennifer, Cloutier, Ryan, Medina, Amber, Irwin, Jonathan, Charbonneau, David, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Bonfils, Xavier, Howard, Andrew, Isaacson, Howard, Bean, Jacob, Seifahrt, Andreas, Teske, Johanna, Eastman, Jason, Twicken, Joseph, Collins, Karen, Jensen, Eric, Quinn, Samuel, Payne, Matthew, Kristiansen, Martti, Spencer, Alton, Vanderburg, Andrew, Zechmeister, Mathias, Weiss, Lauren, Xuesong Wang, Sharon, Wang, Gavin, Udry, Stéphane, Terentev, Ivan, Stürmer, Julian, Stefánsson, Gudmundur, Shporer, Avi, Shectman, Stephen, Sefako, Ramotholo, Martin Schwengeler, Hans, Schwarz, Richard, Scarsdale, Nicholas, Rubenzahl, Ryan, Roy, Arpita, Rosenthal, Lee, Robertson, Paul, Petigura, Erik, Pepe, Francesco, Omohundro, Mark, Akana Murphy, Joseph, Murgas, Felipe, Močnik, Teo, Montet, Benjamin, Mennickent, Ronald, Mayo, Andrew, Massey, Bob, Lubin, Jack, Lovis, Christophe, Lewin, Pablo, Kasper, David, Kane, Stephen, Jenkins, Jon, Huber, Daniel, Horne, Keith, Hill, Michelle, Gorrini, Paula, Giacalone, Steven, Fulton, Benjamin, Forveille, Thierry, Figueira, Pedro, Fetherolf, Tara, Dressing, Courtney, Díaz, Rodrigo, Delfosse, Xavier, Dalba, Paul, Dai, Fei, Cortés, C., Crossfield, Ian, Crane, Jeffrey, Conti, Dennis, Collins, Kevin, Chontos, Ashley, Butler, R., Brown, Peyton, Brady, Madison, Behmard, Aida, Beard, Corey, Batalha, Natalie, Almenara, Jose
LTT 1445 is a hierarchical triple M-dwarf star system located at a distance of 6.86 pc. The primary star LTT 1445A (0.257 Me) is known to host the transiting planet LTT 1445Ab with an orbital period of 5.36 days, making it the second-closest known transiting exoplanet system, and the closest one for which the host is an M dwarf. Using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data, we present the discovery of a second planet in the LTT 1445 system, with an orbital period of 3.12 days. We combine radial-velocity measurements obtained from the five spectrographs, Echelle Spectrograph for Rocky Exoplanets and Stable Spectroscopic Observations, High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher, High-Resolution Echelle Spectrometer, MAROON-X, and Planet Finder Spectrograph to establish that the new world also orbits LTT 1445A. We determine the mass and radius of LTT 1445Ab to be 2.87 ± 0.25 M⊕ and - + 1.304 0.060 0.067 R⊕, consistent with an Earth-like composition. For the newly discovered LTT 1445Ac, we measure a mass of -+ 1.54 0.19 0.20 M⊕ and a minimum radius of 1.15 R⊕, but we cannot determine the radius directly as the signal-to-noise ratio of our light curve permits both grazing and nongrazing configurations. Using MEarth photometry and ground-based spectroscopy, we establish that star C (0.161 Me) is likely the source of the 1.4 day rotation period, and star B (0.215 Me) has a likely rotation period of 6.7 days. We estimate a probable rotation period of 85 days for LTT 1445A. Thus, this triple M-dwarf system appears to be in a special evolutionary stage where the most massive M dwarf has spun down, the intermediate mass M dwarf is in the process of spinning down, while the least massive stellar component has not yet begun to spin down.
GJ 1252 b: A 1.2 R⊕ Planet Transiting an M3 Dwarf at 20.4 pc
2020, Shporer, Avi, Collins, Karen A., Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Irwin, Jonathan, Bonfils, Xavier, Collins, Kevin I., Matthews, Elisabeth, Winters, Jennifer G., Anderson, David R., Armstrong, James D., Charbonneau, David, Cloutier, Ryan, Daylan, Tansu, Gan, Tianjun, Günther, Maximilian N., Hellier, Coel, Horne, Keith, Huang, Chelsea X., Jensen, Eric L. N., Kielkopf, John, Palle, Enric, Sefako, Ramotholo, Stassun, Keivan G., Tan, Thiam-Guan, Vanderburg, Andrew, Ricker, George R., Latham, David W., Vanderspek, Roland, Seager, Sara, Winn, Joshua N., Jenkins, Jon M., Colon, Knicole, Dressing, Courtney D., Léepine, Sébastien, Muirhead, Philip S., Rose, Mark E., Twicken, Joseph D., Villaseñor, Jesús Noel
We report the discovery of GJ 1252 b, a planet with a radius of 1.193 ± 0.074 ${R}_{\oplus }$ and an orbital period of 0.52 days around an M3-type star (0.381 ± 0.019 ${M}_{\odot }$, 0.391 ± 0.020 ${R}_{\odot }$) located 20.385 ± 0.019 pc away. We use Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data, ground-based photometry and spectroscopy, Gaia astrometry, and high angular resolution imaging to show that the transit signal seen in the TESS data must originate from a transiting planet. We do so by ruling out all false-positive scenarios that attempt to explain the transit signal as originating from an eclipsing stellar binary. Precise Doppler monitoring also leads to a tentative mass measurement of 2.09 ± 0.56 M⊕. The host star proximity, brightness (V = 12.19 mag, K = 7.92 mag), low stellar activity, and the system's short orbital period make this planet an attractive target for detailed characterization, including precise mass measurement, looking for other objects in the system, and planet atmosphere characterization.
Line-by-line Velocity Measurements: An Outlier-resistant Method for Precision Velocimetry
2022, Artigau, Étienne, Cadieux, Charles, Cook, Neil, Doyon, René, Vandal, Thomas, Donati, Jean-François, Moutou, Claire, Delfosse, Xavier, Fouqué, Pascal, Martioli, Eder, Bouchy, François, Parsons, Jasmine, Carmona, Andres, Dumusque, Xavier, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Bonfils, Xavier, Mignon, Lucille
We present a new algorithm for precision radial velocity (pRV) measurements, a line-by-line (LBL) approach designed to handle outlying spectral information in a simple but efficient manner. The effectiveness of the LBL method is demonstrated on two data sets, one obtained with SPIRou on Barnard’s star, and the other with the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) on Proxima Centauri. In the near-infrared, the LBL provides a framework for meters-per-second-level accuracy in pRV measurements despite the challenges associated with telluric absorption and sky emission lines. We confirm with SPIRou measurements spanning 2.7 yr that the candidate super-Earth on a 233 day orbit around Barnard’s star is an artifact due to a combination of time sampling and activity. The LBL analysis of the Proxima Centauri HARPS post-upgrade data alone easily recovers the Proxima b signal and also provides a 2σ detection of the recently confirmed 5 day Proxima d planet, but argues against the presence of the candidate Proximac with a period of 1900 days. We provide evidence that the Proxima c signal is associated with small, unaccounted systematic effects affecting the HARPS-TERRA templatematching radial velocity extraction method for long-period signals. Finally, the LBL framework provides a very 92.1 3.5+ 4.2 effective activity indicator, akin to the FWHM derived from the cross-correlation function, from which we infer a rotation period of days for Proxima.
LHS 1815b: the first thick-disk planet detected by TESS
2020, Gan, Tianjun, Shporer, Avi, Livingston, John H., Collins, Karen A., Mao, Shude, Trani, Alessandro A., Gandolf, Davide, Hirano, Teruyuki, Luque, Rafael, Stassun, Keivan G., Ziegler, Carl, Howell, Steve B., Hellier, Coel, Irwin, Jonathan M., Winters, Jennifer G., Anderson, David R., Briceño, César, Law, Nicholas, Mann, Andrew W., Bonfils, Xavier, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Jensen, Eric L. N., Anglada Escudé, Guillem, Ricker, George R., Vanderspek, Roland, Latham, David W., Seager, Sara, Winn, Joshua N., Jenkins, Jon M., Furesz, Gabor, Guerrero, Natalia M., Quintana, Elisa, Twicken, Joseph D., Caldwell, Douglas A., Tenenbaum, Peter, Huang, Chelsea X., Rowden, Pamela, Rojas-Ayala, Bárbara
We report the first discovery of a thick-disk planet, LHS 1815b (TOI-704b, TIC 260004324), detected in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) survey. LHS 1815b transits a bright (V = 12.19 mag, K = 7.99 mag) and quiet M dwarf located 29.87 ± 0.02 pc away with a mass of 0.502 ± 0.015 Me and a radius of 0.501 ± 0.030 Re. We validate the planet by combining space- and ground-based photometry, spectroscopy, and imaging. The planet has a radius of 1.088 ± 0.064 R⊕ with a 3σ mass upper limit of 8.7 M⊕. We analyze the galactic kinematics and orbit of the host star LHS 1815 and find that it has a large probability (Pthick/Pthin = 6482) to be in the thick disk with a much higher expected maximal height (Zmax = 1.8 kpc) above the Galactic plane compared with other TESS planet host stars. Future studies of the interior structure and atmospheric properties of planets in such systems using, for example, the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope, can investigate the differences in formation efficiency and evolution for planetary systems between different Galactic components (thick disks, thin disks, and halo).
A pair of TESS Planets Spanning the radius valley around the Nearby Mid-M Dwarf LTT 3780
2020, Cloutier, Ryan, Eastman, Jason D., Rodríguez, Joseph E., Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Bonfils, Xavier, Mortier, Annelies, Watson, Christopher A., Stalport, Manu, Pinamonti, Matteo, Lienhard, Florian, Harutyunyan, Avet, Damasso, Mario, Latham, David W., Collins, Karen A., Massey, Robert, Irwin, Jonathan, Winters, Jennifer G., Charbonneau, David, Ziegler, Carl, Matthews, Elisabeth, Crossfield, Ian J. M., Kreidberg, Laura, Quinn, Samuel N., Ricker, George, Vanderspek, Roland, Seager, Sara, Winn, Joshua, Jenkins, Jon M., Vezie, Michael, Udry, Stéphane, Twicken, Joseph D., Tenenbaum, Peter, Sozzetti, Alessandro, Ségransan, Damien, Schlieder, Joshua E., Sasselov, Dimitar, Santos, Nuno C., Rice, Ken, Rackham, Benjamin V., Poretti, Ennio, Piotto, Giampaolo, Phillips, David, Pepe, Francesco, Molinari, Emilio, Mignon, Lucile, Micela, Giuseppina, Melo, Claudio, De Medeiros, José R., Mayor, Michel, Matson, Rachel A., Martínez Fiorenzano, Aldo F., Mann, Andrew W., Magazzú, Antonio, Lovis, Christophe, López-Morales, Mercedes, López, Eric, Lissauer, Jack J., Lépine, Sébastien, Law, Nicholas, Kielkopf, John F., Johnson, John A., Jensen, Eric L. N., Howell, Steve B., Gonzáles, Erica, Ghedina, Adriano, Forveille, Thierry, Figueira, Pedro, Dumusque, Xavier, Dressing, Courtney D., Doyon, René, Díaz, Rodrigo F., Di Fabrizio, Luca, Delfosse, Xavier, Cosentino, Rosario, Conti, Dennis M., Collins, Kevin I., Collier Cameron, Andrew, Ciardi, David, Caldwell, Douglas A., Burke, Christopher, Buchhave, Lars, Briceño, César, Boyd, Patricia, Bouchy, François, Beichman, Charles, Artigau, Étienne, Almenara, José Manuel
We present the confirmation of two new planets transiting the nearby mid-M dwarf LTT 3780 (TIC 36724087, TOI-732, V = 13.07, Ks = 8.204, Rs = 0.374 R⊙, Ms = 0.401 M⊙, d = 22 pc). The two planet candidates are identified in a single Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite sector and validated with reconnaissance spectroscopy, ground-based photometric follow-up, and high-resolution imaging. With measured orbital periods of Pb = 0.77, Pc = 12.25 days and sizes rp,b = 1.33 ± 0.07, rp,c = 2.30 ± 0.16 R⊕, the two planets span the radius valley in period–radius space around low-mass stars, thus making the system a laboratory to test competing theories of the emergence of the radius valley in that stellar mass regime. By combining 63 precise radial velocity measurements from the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) and HARPS-N, we measure planet masses of ${m}_{p,b}={2.62}_{-0.46}^{+0.48}$ and ${m}_{p,c}={8.6}_{-1.3}^{+1.6}$ M⊕, which indicates that LTT 3780b has a bulk composition consistent with being Earth-like, while LTT 3780c likely hosts an extended H/He envelope. We show that the recovered planetary masses are consistent with predictions from both photoevaporation and core-powered mass-loss models. The brightness and small size of LTT 3780, along with the measured planetary parameters, render LTT 3780b and c as accessible targets for atmospheric characterization of planets within the same planetary system and spanning the radius valley.
The LHS 1678 System: Two earth-sized transiting planets and an astrometric companion orbiting an M Dwarf near the convective boundary at 20 pc
2022, Silverstein, Michele, Schlieder, Joshua, Barclay, Thomas, Hord, Benjamin, Jao, Wei-Chun, Vrijmoet, Eliot, Henry, Todd, Cloutier, Ryan, Kostov, Veselin, Kruse, Ethan, Winters, Jennifer, Irwin, Jonathan, Kane, Stephen, Stassun, Keivan, Huang, Chelsea, Kunimoto, Michelle, Tey, Evan, Vanderburg, Andrew, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Bonfils, Xavier, Brasseur, C., Charbonneau, David, Ciardi, David, Collins, Karen, Collins, Kevin, Conti, Dennis, Crossfield, Ian, Daylan, Tansu, Doty, John, Dressing, Courtney, Gilbert, Emily, Horne, Keith, Jenkins, Jon, Latham, David, Mann, Andrew, Matthews, Elisabeth, Paredes, Leonardo, Quinn, Samuel, Ricker, George, Schwarz, Richard, Seager, Sara, Sefako, Ramotholo, Shporer, Avi, Smith, Jeffrey, Stockdale, Christopher, Tan, Thiam-Guan, Torres, Guillermo, Twicken, Joseph, Vanderspek, Roland, Wang, Gavin, Winn, Joshua
We present the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovery of the LHS 1678 (TOI-696) exoplanet system, comprised of two approximately Earth-sized transiting planets and a likely astrometric brown dwarf orbiting a bright (V J = 12.5, K s = 8.3) M2 dwarf at 19.9 pc. The two TESS-detected planets are of radius 0.70 ± 0.04 R ⊕ and 0.98 ± 0.06 R ⊕ in 0.86 day and 3.69 day orbits, respectively. Both planets are validated and characterized via ground-based follow-up observations. High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher RV monitoring yields 97.7 percentile mass upper limits of 0.35 M ⊕ and 1.4 M ⊕ for planets b and c, respectively. The astrometric companion detected by the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory/Small and Moderate Aperture Telescope System 0.9 m has an orbital period on the order of decades and is undetected by other means. Additional ground-based observations constrain the companion to being a high-mass brown dwarf or smaller. Each planet is of unique interest; the inner planet has an ultra-short period, and the outer planet is in the Venus zone. Both are promising targets for atmospheric characterization with the James Webb Space Telescope and mass measurements via extreme-precision radial velocity. A third planet candidate of radius 0.9 ± 0.1 R ⊕ in a 4.97 day orbit is also identified in multicycle TESS data for validation in future work. The host star is associated with an observed gap in the lower main sequence of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. This gap is tied to the transition from partially to fully convective interiors in M dwarfs, and the effect of the associated stellar astrophysics on exoplanet evolution is currently unknown. The culmination of these system properties makes LHS 1678 a unique, compelling playground for comparative exoplanet science and understanding the formation and evolution of small, short-period exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.
Company for the Ultra-high Density, Ultra-short Period Sub-Earth GJ 367 b: Discovery of Two Additional Low-mass Planets at 11.5 and 34 Days
2023, Goffo, Elisa, Gandolfi, Davide, Jo Ann, Egger, Mustill, Alejandro, Albrecht, H., Teruyuki, Hirano, Kochukhov, Oleg, Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Barragán, Oscar, Serrano, Luisa, Hatzes, Artie, Alibert, Guenther, Eike, Fei, Dai, Kristine W. F. Lam, Szilárd Csizmadia, Alexis M. S. Smith, Fossati, Luca, Luque, Rafael, Rodler, Florian, Winther, Mark, Rørsted, Jakob, Alarcon, Javier, Bonfils, Xavier, Cochran,William, Deeg, Hans J., Jenkins, Jon M., Korth, Judith, Livingston, John, Meech, Annabella, Murgas, Felipe, Orell-Miquel, Jaume, Osborne, Hannah, Enric, Palle, Persson, Carina M., Seth,Redfield, Ricker, George, Seager, Sara, Vanderspek, Roland, Van Eylen, Vincent
GJ 367 is a bright (V ≈ 10.2) M1 V star that has been recently found to host a transiting ultra-short period sub-Earth on a 7.7 hr orbit. With the aim of improving the planetary mass and radius and unveiling the inner architecture of the system, we performed an intensive radial velocity follow-up campaign with the HARPS spectrograph—collecting 371 high-precision measurements over a baseline of nearly 3 yr—and combined our Doppler measurements with new TESS observations from sectors 35 and 36. We found that GJ 367 b has a mass of Mb = 0.633 ± 0.050 M⊕ and a radius of Rb = 0.699 ± 0.024 R⊕, corresponding to precisions of 8% and 3.4%, respectively. This implies a planetary bulk density of ρb = 10.2 ± 1.3 g cm−3 , i.e., 85% higher than Earth’s density. We revealed the presence of two additional non-transiting low-mass companions with orbital periods of∼11.5 and 34 days and minimum masses of M isinc c = 4.13 ± 0.36 M⊕ and M isind d = 6.03 ± 0.49 M⊕respectively, which lie close to the 3:1 mean motion commensurability. GJ 367 b joins the small class of high-density planets, namely the class of super-Mercuries, being the densest ultra-short period small planet known to date. Thanks to our precise mass and radius estimates, we explored the potential internal composition and structure of GJ 367 b, and found that it is expected to have an iron core with a mass fraction of -+ 0.91 0.23 0.07. How this iron core is formed and how such a high density is reached is still not clear, and we discuss the possible pathways of formation of such a small ultra-dense planet.
A more precise mass for GJ 1214 b and the frequency of multiplanet systems around Mid-M Dwarfs
2021, Dr. Astudillo-Defru, Nicola, Cloutier, Ryan, Charbonneau, David, Deming, Drake, Bonfils, Xavier
We present an intensive effort to refine the mass and orbit of the enveloped terrestrial planet GJ 1214 b using 165 radial velocity (RV) measurements taken with the HARPS spectrograph over a period of 10 years. We conduct a joint analysis of the RVs with archival Spitzer/IRAC transits and measure a planetary mass and radius of 8.17 ±0.43 M⊕ and 2.742 0.053+ 0.050 R⊕. Assuming that GJ 1214 b is an Earth-like core surrounded by a H/He envelope, we measure an envelope mass fraction of Xenv= 5.24 0.29+ 0.30%. GJ 1214 b remains a prime target for secondary eclipse observations of an enveloped terrestrial, the scheduling of which benefits from our constraint on the orbital eccentricity of <0.063 at 95% confidence, which narrows the secondary eclipse window to 2.8hr. By combining GJ 1214 with other mid-M-dwarf transiting systems with intensive RV follow up, we calculate the frequency of mid-M-dwarf planetary systems with multiple small planets and find that+ 90 21 5% of mid-M dwarfs with a known planet with massä [1, 10] M⊕ and orbital period [0.5, 50] days, will host at least one additional planet. We rule out additional planets around GJ 1214 down to 3 M⊕ within 10 days, such that GJ 1214 is a singleplanet system within these limits. This result has a+ 44 5 9 probability given the prevalence of multiplanet systems around mid-M dwarfs. We also investigate mid-M-dwarf RV systems and show that the probability that all reported RV planet candidates are real planets is <12% at 99% confidence, although this statistical argument is unable to identify the probable false positives.