Dr. Brante-Ramirez, Antonio

Established non-native sea anemone populations can affect the native community through multiple mechanisms, including predation and competition. The conservation of invaded communities is therefore of great concern, and spatially explicit information is essential for the prevention or early detection of introductions. Here, we used ecological niche modeling to (1) predict areas with invasion risk of 3 successful widespread invasive sea anemone species (Diadumene lineata, Exaiptasia diaphana, and Nematostella vectensis); (2) determine the invasion stage of current non-native occurrences; and (3) test the climatic match hypothesis of invasion success by assessing their environmental niche dynamics. Our results bring new insights to the invasion process of sea anemones, which is relevant considering the scarcity of monitoring efforts, the issues associated with their detection, and the potential ecological effects they generate on invaded communities. First, we provide potential distributions that could help to detect non-native populations early on. Second, we confirm a strong pattern of successful establishment. Finally, we demonstrate that the invasion success of these species has mainly occurred in areas with environmental conditions similar to those from their respective native ranges (i.e. climatic match, niche conservatism).

Non-native species can have profound implications on the survival of native ones. This is especially true for some invasive crabs, such as the green crab Carcinus maenas, a native species to the Northern Hemisphere that has been introduced into southern Argentina, from where it could expand through Argentina, Chile, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, there is interest in forecasting changes in C. maenas habitat suitability through time to predict if potential future invasions might occur. Here, by using a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach, we estimated the habitat suitability for C. maenas along southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula under two future climate-change scenarios. Our results reveal that under current conditions, habitat suitability for C. maenas along the Antarctic Peninsula is null and very restricted in Argentina and Chile. Habitat suitability along the Antarctic Peninsula remained null in the short-term (30 years) and long-term future (80 years), despite the climate-change scenario considered. Surprisingly, when considering future conditions, habitat suitability along the coast of Argentina and Chile decreased and became nil for some currently occupied locations. Thus, the SDM results suggest that climate change could have a negative effect on the habitat suitability of C. maenas leading to potential local extinctions.