Dr. Brante-Ramírez, Antonio

Non-native species can have profound implications on the survival of native ones. This is especially true for some invasive crabs, such as the green crab Carcinus maenas, a native species to the Northern Hemisphere that has been introduced into southern Argentina, from where it could expand through Argentina, Chile, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, there is interest in forecasting changes in C. maenas habitat suitability through time to predict if potential future invasions might occur. Here, by using a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach, we estimated the habitat suitability for C. maenas along southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula under two future climate-change scenarios. Our results reveal that under current conditions, habitat suitability for C. maenas along the Antarctic Peninsula is null and very restricted in Argentina and Chile. Habitat suitability along the Antarctic Peninsula remained null in the short-term (30 years) and long-term future (80 years), despite the climate-change scenario considered. Surprisingly, when considering future conditions, habitat suitability along the coast of Argentina and Chile decreased and became nil for some currently occupied locations. Thus, the SDM results suggest that climate change could have a negative effect on the habitat suitability of C. maenas leading to potential local extinctions.

Climate change is strongly influencing regions of Antarctica but the consequences on microevolutionary processes have been little studied. Patterns of population genetic diversity were analysed in the Antarctic bivalve Nuculana inaequisculpta (Protobranchia: Nuculanidae) from a fjord with 70 years of documented climate-forced glacier retreat. Thirty-nine individuals from five sites at different distances from the glacier terminus were collected, and the COI gene was sequenced from each individual. No statistically significant genetic differentiation was found between sites nor a significant correlation between the proximity of glaciers and genetic diversity, suggesting a high dispersal capability and therefore, a planktonic larval stage for this species. Nevertheless, we encourage increasing the sample size and number of loci in future studies to confirm our findings.