Se evalúa la asignación de valores a situaciones de incertidumbre desde las intuiciones probabilísticas en 41 estudiantes de secundaria (16-17 años) por medio de un cuestionario de once ítems cerrados. A continuación, se implementa un ciclo formativo de veinte horas cronológicas de probabilidades y sus representaciones en la vida cotidiana, y analizan los cambios producidos en las argumentaciones en dos ítems por los estudiantes. Los resultados indican mayor variabilidad en las intuiciones postest de los estudiantes en situaciones de contexto habitual y mejora significativa en conocimientos con argumentos probabilísticos. En consecuencia, se promueve una enseñanza de probabilidad, a temprana edad, de las intuiciones a la confrontación con el conocimiento formal y que tenga en consideración la experimentación, variadas argumentaciones, y las conexiones entre los significados de la probabilidad.

Working with statistical data from real contexts has become fundamental in school-level statistics, because it enables the development of statistical reasoning. In this regard, the notion of the random variable is fundamental to statistical data analysis. Thus, the aim of this research was to characterise the meanings of the concept of the random variable that are promoted in the Chilean mathematics curriculum for secondary education. To achieve this, we examined the representativeness of the meanings of the random variable intended by the curriculum in relation to the meanings of reference for this concept, using theoretical and methodological notions from the onto-semiotic approach. The findings show that the meanings of reference were not fully represented in the textbooks and the national curriculum, and that the most promoted meaning was that of the random variable as a variable of interest. Regarding the types of representation, it was observed that the graphical and tabular representations were neglected. Lastly, it was noticed that definitions of the concept of variable, its classifications, and differences were omitted almost entirely from the textbooks.