Research Outputs
Climate-driven changes in freshwater inputs to a Northern patagonia Fjord and overfishing of wild mussel seed could threaten Chilean mussel farming
Chile is the world’s leading exporter of farmed mussels, with an annual harvest of about 400,000 tonnes; this production is based on the capture of wild seeds, the availability of which may be threatened by climate change and overfishing. Climate change has led to a decrease in annual precipitation, which increases the salinity of the water column and may affect the vertical distribution of mussel populations in fjords. In Reloncaví Fjord, Chile, observed changes in precipitation are reducing freshwater inputs, leading to potential shifts in the habitat and distribution of the economically important Chilean mussel (Mytilus chilensis) and a competing species, Aulacomya atra. This study analyses the vertical dynamics of mussel beds in relation to changing environmental conditions, including freshwater inputs, salinity and hydrological regimes in a fjord exploited for mussel seed collection. The results suggest that decreasing trends in precipitation could lead to increased surface salinity, reducing M. chilensis beds while favouring A. atra, with negative consequences for wild seed collection, thus threatening the Chilean mussel farming industry and predicting socio-economic consequences for small-scale aquaculture. This study also describes the increasing fishing pressure on wild mussel larvae, suggesting joint effects that cannot be disentangled with the information currently available and that represent a key challenge for the design of adaptation measures to climate change. Therefore, this study highlights the need for better monitoring of mussel beds together with seed production and oceanographic conditions, as well as improving aquaculture practices that reduce unnecessary pressure on mussel beds through seed collection in the face of changing environmental conditions.
Scientific warnings could help to reduce farmed salmon mortality due to harmful algal blooms
The increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) affecting mariculture has been related to climatic factors but also to increasing eutrophication of coastal zones, to which aquaculture may also contribute. The role of climate change on HABs may be increasingly relevant but scientific efforts to separate this from other causal factors are to date inconclusive. HABs have been a permanent threat to the aquaculture industry in southern Chile, yet government and farmers may have not paid enough attention to scientific information and advice, even when risk-based predictions and warnings have been provided. Here we describe eutrophication risk assessments for water bodies hosting salmon farms and climate change risk maps for the salmon industry in Chilean Patagonia, including the increase of HABs as a main threat. Assessments and maps were delivered in 2020 both to producers and to government. We show that such risk information and mapping could have lessened recent salmon mortality due to HABs (March-April 2021) if government and farmers had followed explicit recommendations to reduce salmon farming production in water bodies with higher risk. This measure would reduce Exposure and Sensitivity under the climate change risk framework used. We provide policy recommendations, including reviewing maximum salmon production in relevant water bodies such as fjords according to eutrophication risks, while paying attention to additional stress from climate change variability and trends.
Hydrographic shifts in coastal waters reflect climate-driven changes in hydrological regimes across Northwestern Patagonia
Climate-driven changes in freshwater inputs have been shown to afect the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. We evaluated changes in the infuence of river runof on coastal systems of Northwestern Patagonia (NWP) over recent decades (1993–2021) by combined analysis of long-term streamfow time series, hydrological simulation, satellite-derived and reanalysis data on sea surface conditions (temperature, turbidity, and salinity). Signifcant decreases in minimum streamfow across a zone spanning six major river basins were evident at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. These changes have been most pronounced in mixed-regime northern basins (e.g., Puelo River) but appear to be progressing southward to rivers characterised by a nival regime. In the adjacent two-layer inner sea, reduced freshwater input corresponds with a shallower halocline and increased surface temperatures across northern Patagonia. Our results underscore the rapidly evolving infuence of rivers on adjacent estuarine and coastal waters in NWP. We highlight the need for cross-ecosystem observation, forecasting, mitigation and adaptation strategies in a changing climate, together with corresponding adaptive basin management of systems that supply runof to the coastal marine waters.
Climate and land cover trends affecting freshwater inputs to a fjord in Northwestern Patagonia
Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.
Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
The success of Chilean salmon farming’s early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attributes. This study analyzed the risk of climate change in 123 watersheds that supply water to land-based salmon farms in south-central Chile (36.5 43◦S). The risk was calculated based on exposure (fingerling and smolt production), sensitivity (land cover maps for three time periods), and hazard indicators (four climate change indicators). The results show a disturbing reality: under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 50% of the current fingerling and smolts production would be located in high or very high-risk areas. These projections are the result of both a drier and warmer climate as well as the continued processes of deforestation and fragmentation of native forests, a spatio-temporal combination which could limit the availability and quality of the water needed for optimal aquaculture production. The risk analysis suggests that landscape configuration may be a potential alternative to mitigate the consequences of climate change on Chilean salmon farming. This is particularly important in areas such as south-central Chile, where the current watershed management and/or conservation strategies do not ensure landscapes resilient to projected hydroclimatic changes.