Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto

Financial markets have been characterized in recent years by their uncertainty and volatility. The price of assets is always changing so that the decisions made by consumers, producers, and governments about different products is not still accurate. In this situation, it is necessary to generate models that allow the incorporation of the knowledge and expectations of the markets and thus include in the results obtained not only the historical information, but also the present and future information. The present article introduces a new extension of the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator called the Bonferroni probabilistic ordered weighted average (B-POWA) operator. This operator is designed to unify in a single formulation the interrelation of the values given in a data set by the Bonferroni means and a weighted and probabilistic vector that models the attitudinal character, expectations, and knowledge of the decision-maker of a problem. The paper also studies the main characteristics and some families of the B-POWA operator. An illustrative example is also proposed to analyze the mathematical process of the operator. Finally, an application to corn price estimation designed to calculate the error between the price of an agricultural commodity using the B-POWA operator and a leading global market company is presented. The results show that the proposed operator exhibits a better general performance than the traditional methods.

This paper presents a new aggregation operator technique that uses the ordered weighted average (OWA), heavy aggregation operators, Hamming distance, and moving averages. This approach is called heavy ordered weighted moving average distance (HOWMAD). The main advantage of this operator is that it can use the characteristics of the HOWMA operator to under-or overestimate the results according to the expectations and the knowledge of the future scenarios, analyze the historical data of the moving average, and compare the different alternatives with the ideal results of the distance measures. Some of the main families and specific cases using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means are presented, such as the generalized heavy moving average distance and a generalized HOWMAD. This study develops an application of this operator in forecasting the sales growth rate for a commercial company. We find that it is possible to determine whether the company's objectives can be achieved or must be reevaluated in response to the actual situation and future expectations of the enterprise.