Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto

2022, Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto, Flores-Sosa, Martha, Merigó, José, Yager, Ronald

This paper introduces the multiple linear regression heavy ordered weighted average (MLR-HOWA) operator. On the MLR-HOWA operator, the beta values are obtained with the use of the HOWA means. In that sense, it provides a new range of possibilities by under or overestimating the result based on the decision maker’s expectations and knowledge. Therefore, the MLR-HOWA provides a forecasting tool that can analyze multiple scenarios from minimum to maximum. The main properties and two extensions using induced and generalized variables are also presented. An application in exchange rate forecasting based on inflation and interest rate as independent variables for five Latin American countries is submitted. Among the main results, it is possible to identify that the forecasting error is reduced when different combinations of MLR with OWA operators are done.

2022, Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto, Flores-Sosa, Martha, Aviles-Ochoa, Ezequiel, Merigo, Jose

Estimating and forecasting volatility is an important issue for financial decision-makers. Therefore, it is important to build models that adapt to the current characteristics of the time series. The ordered weighted average (OWA) has some extensions that provide interesting ways to adapt to these characteristics. This work proposes a new application that uses the simple linear regression (LR) and OWA operators in the same formulation. We use the heavy ordered weighted average (HOWA), the prioritized ordered weighted average (PrOWA), the probabilistic ordered weighted average (POWA) and their combinations with induced cooperators. The main idea in linear regression with OWA operator is to obtain an estimate and forecast that can be adaptable to situations of uncertainty and information known to the decision maker. The work analyzes the applicability of this new approach in a problem regarding exchange rate volatility forecasting, where the operators that we can use in high or low seasons are located and thus generate ranges.

2024, Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto, Blanco-Mesa, Fabio, Hussain, Walayat, Flores-Sosa, Martha, Perez-Arellano, Luis

The aim of this paper is to present the application of the OWA operator and some of its extensions in the calculation of continent and global tax revenues. The idea is to present how the analysis of an important economic indicator can vary depending on how the information is aggregated. An example was employed based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database using 111 countries that were divided by continent, and then the global tax revenue was calculated using different aggregation operators. Different analyses can be carried out by governments and enterprises to improve decision making and fiscal politics.

2024, Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto, Flores-Sosa, Martha, Hussain, Walayat, Blanco-Mesa, Fabio, Espinoza-Audelo, Luis

The main purpose is to propose a new method for approximating the average interest rate using an ordered weighted average. The ordered weighted average (OWA), generalized GOWA operator and interval numbers are studied to develop this method. Using average interest rate formulation combined with aggregations operators and interval numbers presented above is the proposed weighted average interest rate (OWAIR) operator. For mathematical application, the deposit interest rates of the countries with 2020 data on the World Bank website are carried out. Finally, it should be noted that changes in the maximum, minimum, and average values are considered in the use of training for each region, which can be helpful for investors’ decision-making.