Dr. León-Castro, Ernesto

Financial markets have been characterized in recent years by their uncertainty and volatility. The price of assets is always changing so that the decisions made by consumers, producers, and governments about different products is not still accurate. In this situation, it is necessary to generate models that allow the incorporation of the knowledge and expectations of the markets and thus include in the results obtained not only the historical information, but also the present and future information. The present article introduces a new extension of the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator called the Bonferroni probabilistic ordered weighted average (B-POWA) operator. This operator is designed to unify in a single formulation the interrelation of the values given in a data set by the Bonferroni means and a weighted and probabilistic vector that models the attitudinal character, expectations, and knowledge of the decision-maker of a problem. The paper also studies the main characteristics and some families of the B-POWA operator. An illustrative example is also proposed to analyze the mathematical process of the operator. Finally, an application to corn price estimation designed to calculate the error between the price of an agricultural commodity using the B-POWA operator and a leading global market company is presented. The results show that the proposed operator exhibits a better general performance than the traditional methods.

Agricultural products have experienced sudden changes in prices in recent years as a result of volumes of production and demand at the international level. Volatility is a key element in understanding the difficulties that the market may have. However, the traditional formula for volatility only considers historical information and does not consider decision makers’ knowledge and skills. To improve this approach and obtain more accurate results consistent with the reality of the market, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is used. These new approaches are the OWA-Volatility, Induced OWA-Volatility, Heavy OWA-Volatility, Probabilistic OWA-Volatility, Induced Probabilistic OWA-Volatility and Induced Heavy OWA-Volatility. In addition, some particular cases are presented in which the aggregation process is only applied to one part of the formula or quasi-arithmetic means are used. An example of volatility calculations for corn prices in 2017 is presented.