Dra. Matamala-Aguayo, Yolanda

Renewable energy resources are crucial for decarbonizing the energy sector. Distributed energy resources, such as renewable generation by microgrids, aid the transition to net-zero systems. As microgrids proliferate, renewable generation often exceeds self-supply capacities, necessitating either the sale of excess electricity or the implementation of demand-response strategies. The optimal approach for microgrids (selling or shifting demand) hinges on electricity prices. This article examines the interplay between microgrids, demand response, photovoltaic investments, and pricing mechanisms. A novel Stackelberg model is proposed to minimize microgrid investment and operational costs. The upper-level problem determines energy community investments and demand response levels based on electricity prices, while the lower-level problem addresses market dispatch and endogenous pricing for microgrids. Case studies with varying battery storage levels, demand response limits, and pricing mechanisms are conducted. The research results illustrate the responsiveness of market transactions to supply conditions and pricing. Key findings show that microgrid flexibility in demand response reduces grid dependency, prompting significant investments in solar energy and battery storage, driven by economic incentives, especially under spot market conditions. Investments in solar energy more than double when microgrids trade energy at spot prices compared to flat prices.

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Therefore, this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels>66% for end-use sectors.

Implementing nationally determined contributions is more challenging for developing countries given potential economic consequences. Chile, a developing economy, is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. To do so, Chile announced multiple mitigation strategies such as phasing out coal by 2040, peaking emissions by 2025, and developing renewable energies. Fortunately, Chile holds a prominent renewable potential, standing out for solar, but it also has a significant challenge decarbonizing an economy that heavily relies on fossil fuels. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the first country-level disaggregated version of GCAM Latin America (GCAM-LA) was developed, where all South American countries are modeled as an independent energy-economy region. This model includes Chile as a separated region and incorporates interactions among the energy, water, agriculture and land use, economy, and climate systems. Second, different decarbonization strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 were obtained, considering technology availability and high renewable energy potential. Results indicate that carbon neutrality is feasible when enforcing different combinations of the current Chilean mitigation strategies, even delaying coal phase-out by five years and failure of developing advanced solar technologies. If some policies are not fully implemented, such as delaying coal phase-out by five years or failure of developing advanced solar technologies, carbon neutrality can be achieved by incurring in a higher capital cost in the power sector. Moreover, decarbonization is mainly driven by high electrification levels in the final demand sector, reaching 53.7%–62.9% of the total consumption. However, such levels of electrification are reduced, particularly in the transport sector, when Chile relies on negative emissions from the land use and forestry sector.