Dr. Aránguiz-Muñoz, Rafael

On September 28, 2018 significant tsunami waves, which are considered to have been generated by submarine landslides, struck the shorelines of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. One month after the event, the authors conducted a questionnaire survey of the affected areas (Donggala Regency and Palu City) to collect information on the evacuation behaviour and tsunami awareness of local residents. In the present study, in addition to summarising the overall trend of the survey results using descriptive statistics, a chi-squared test was applied to analyse the significance of the relationship between tsunami awareness and evacuation behaviour and the demographic characteristics of respondents. The analysis of the results demonstrates that although the respondents generally have a high level of tsunami awareness, younger people and Donggala Regency residents have an overall lower understanding of the phenomenon. It was also found that 82.5% of the population evacuated after witnessing others evacuating during the event. As there was no official warning to residents before the arrival of the tsunami, this social trigger played a significant role in prompting evacuation and decreasing the number of casualties. The present study also revealed that many people faced congestion while evacuating (especially in Palu City). This highlights the need to introduce additional tsunami disaster mitigation strategies to ensure that all residents can swiftly evacuate during such incidents.

Water level oscillations induced by the ground motion of an earthquake have occasionally been observed in a closed or partially enclosed water system. The generated water disturbances can induce localized flooding, boat collisions, breakage/damage of moored cables due to water disturbances, or even the capsizing of vessels. In this study, the authors focused on cases of seismic water level oscillations in canals and attempted to investigate the potential hazards of and effective countermeasures against them through numerical simulations. The proposed numerical simulation model was first validated by reproducing the water level oscillation that was actually observed at a canal in Mexico City (Xochimilco Canal) during the 2017 Central Mexico Earthquake. The method was then applied to one of the canals in Tokyo (Keihin Canal) to clarify the potential water level fluctuations that can take place due to this phenomenon. The results indicate that while the risks of local inundation would be low, small boats, which can be found in many places in the canal, are at risk of capsizing. Finally, the use of wave-dissipating blocks was found to be an effective countermeasure to decrease the potential for a significant seismic water level oscillation to take place in this canal.

In the case of a near-field tsunami event, coastal residents must quickly become aware of the potential danger of a tsunami taking place and start taking actions to evacuate. The present paper aims to show which types of evacuation triggers worked amongst coastal residents with different characteristics and backgrounds by conducting a comparative analysis of four recent near-field tsunami events. The results of the analysis showed that basic knowledge about tsunamis had been spreading throughout the areas studied, which triggered many people to evacuate soon after feeling ground motion, almost regardless of how frequently each area had experienced tsunami events in the past. Educational activities and community-based efforts appear to be some of the reasons that can explain this finding. However, because some people in areas with fewer past experiences only evacuated after noticing last-minute signs and there is a nonnegligible number of visitors present in the coastline of certain communities, continuous efforts toward developing tsunami awareness are still needed. The results of the analysis also showed that in areas with fewer past experiences, people were more likely to wait for messages from the authorities to decide to evacuate. This finding highlights the importance of teaching local residents and visitors how a tsunami can reach a given area in a relatively short period of time.

The September 28 2018 Palu tsunami surprised the scientific community, as neither the earthquake magnitude nor its strike-slip mechanism were deemed capable of producing the wave heights that were observed. However, recent research has shown that the earthquake generated several landslides inside Palu bay. The authors conducted a post-disaster field survey of the area affected to collect spatial data on tsunami inundation heights, nearshore and bay bathymetry, and carried out eyewitness interviews to collect testimonies of the event. In addition, numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation mechanisms were carried out and validated with the inferred time series. Seven small submarine landslides were identified along the western shore of the bay, and one large one was reported on the eastern shore of Palu City. Most of these landslides occurred at river mouths and reclamation areas, where soft submarine sediments had accumulated. The numerical simulations support a scenario in which the tsunami waves that arrived at Palu city 4–10 min after the earthquake were caused by the co-seismic seafloor deformation, possibly coupled with secondary waves generated from several submarine landslides. These findings suggest that more comprehensive methodologies and tools need to be used when assessing probabilistic tsunami hazards in narrow bays.

The last great earthquake in northern Chile took place in 1877, and the ensuing tsunami affected not only that region but also Central Chile. For example, the Bay of Concepción, which is located 1,500 km south of the tsunami source, experienced an inundation height of around 3 m. Ports are important in the Chilean economy, due to the fact that a large percentage of Chilean exports (excluding copper) use ports located in Central Chile. With this in mind, the authors investigated the potential effect of an 1877-like tsunami on the main ports of Central Chile. To do this, the dispersive wave model Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs was used. In addition, the first tsunami forecast model for Talcahuano, inside the Bay of Concepción, was developed by means of numerical simulation of several events of different moment magnitudes. The results showed that most of the important ports (Valparaiso, San Antonio, San Vicente and Coronel) had inundation heights on the order of just 1 m, while inundation levels in Talcahuano reached up to 3.5 m. The forecast model for Talcahuano uses only earthquake magnitude, focal depth and tide level to determine tsunami inundation heights. In addition, the tsunami arrival time was computed to be 3 h, and the maximum tsunami amplitude takes place at 4 h and 45 min after the earthquake.