Dr. Aranguiz-Muñoz, Rafael

The destructive potential of a massive tsunami is not only related to society’s response capacity and evacuation plans, but also to the urban morphology and land cover. The Boca Sur neigh- borhood is one of the areas in central Chile that is most exposed to tsunamis, and it is framed in the context of increasing urban growth. Faced with the worst tsunami scenario (earthquake Mw = 9.0), residents’ evacuation potential is analyzed by using a least-cost-distance model, and two scenarios of land cover change are considered (2002 and 2018). Presently, the sector’s urban areas have grown by 83%, therefore its population has also grown. The evacuation times consider an average walking speed (1.22 m/s) for both years (2002 and 2018). This analysis establishes that over 40% of the study area is more than 60 min away from the safe zones established by authorities. This differs greatly from the 22-min average tsunami arrival time. Moreover, 19% of the area could not be evacuated in less than 30 min. Therefore, it can be concluded that the increased urbanization in the coastal area has not improved travel times, as urban planning did not consider the optimization of evacuation times to the designated safe zones. In this study, we propose new safe zones that would help reducing evacuation times to 30 min. In addition to the area’s high tsunami risk, the evacuated population’s strong travel time limitations are added, prioritizing the incorporation of social and urban resilience elements that help to effectively reduce the risk of disaster, by using land-use planning and community work.

This study assesses physical infrastructure vulnerability for infrastructure network components exposed during the 2015 Illapel tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile. We analyse road and utility pole vulnerability to damage, based on interpolated and simulated tsunami hazard intensity (flow depth, flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux) and network component characteristics. A Random Forest Model and Spearman’s Rank correlation test are applied to analyse variable importance and monotonic relationships, with respect to damage, between tsunami hazards and network component attributes. These models and tests reveal that flow depth correlates higher with damage, relative to flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux. Scour (for roads and utility poles) and debris strikes (for utility poles) are strongly correlated with damage. A cumulative link model methodology is used to fit fragility curves. These fragility curves reveal that, in response to flow depth, Coquimbo roads have higher vulnerability than those analysed in previous tsunami event studies, while utility poles demonstrate lower vulnerability than with previous studies. Although we identify tsunami flow depth as the most important hydrodynamic hazard intensity metric, for causing road and utility pole damage, multiple characteristics correlate with damage and should also be considered when classifying infrastructure damage levels.

Tsunami inundation maps are crucial for understanding the impact of tsunamis and planning mitigation measures. Our research focuses on creating a database of stochastic tsunami scenarios along the Chilean subduction zone and probabilistic inundation maps for 11 coastal cities. We divided the Chile-Perú subduction zone into four seismic segments based on historical seismicity. Stochastic rupture scenarios, ranging from 8.0 to 9.6 magnitudes, were generated using the Karhunen-Loeve expansion. The Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM) helped select representative tsunami scenarios for each segment and magnitude bin. We then used the NEOWAVE model to simulate these scenarios to an inundation level, creating probabilistic tsunami maps for various return periods. Our findings reveal that local geography significantly influences tsunami inundation, with some areas facing high inundation risks while others experience minimal impacts. As a result, a uniform planning and design criterion across the entire country is not advisable; site-specific studies are necessary. These probabilistic scenarios can provide tailored solutions for different Chilean coastal cities, enhancing their resilience. Additionally, this research marks the first comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Chilean coast, considering multiple seismic sources, marking a crucial step toward full tsunami risk assessment for coastal communities.

A cascading rainfall–landslide–tsunami event occurred on June 29th, 2022, in Todos los Santos Lake, located in southern Chile, affecting the tourist town of Petrohué. The event took place after several days of heavy rain during an extratropical cyclone. Important data were collected during a field survey, including hillslope 3D scans, lake–river bathymetry, orthomosaic photos, and an assessment of damage to public infrastructure. The analysis showed that the landslide had an estimated length, width, and depth of 175 m, 40 m, and 1.5 m, respectively, which resulted in a total volume of 10,500 m3. The underwater runout distance of the landslide was estimated at 40 m, with a final water depth of 12 m. The initial tsunami wave was observed to be ~1 m, and since the distance from the landslide to the town was ~500 m, an arrival time of ~1 min was observed. Despite the small tsunami amplitudes, the pedestrian bridge of the floating pontoon collapsed due to the flow current and vertical oscillations. The results of the numerical simulation of the tsunami supported the observed data. They showed that the impact of the tsunami was only in the near field and was influenced by the bathymetry, such that refraction and edge waves were observed. The landslide occurred in an area where previous debris flows took place in 2013 and 2015. The main finding of the present research is that the occurrences of this and previous landslides were controlled by the presence of the Liquiñe–Ofqui fault zone, which generates broad areas of structural damage, with mechanical and chemical weathering significantly reducing rock strength. These observations provide a warning regarding the susceptibility of similar regions to other trigger events such as earthquakes and rainfall. This recent landslide highlights the need for a more comprehensive hazard assessment, for which probabilistic analysis could be focused on large active strike-slip fault systems. It also highlights the importance of community awareness, particularly in areas where tourism and real estate speculation have significantly increased urban development.

A submarine eruption in Cumberland Bay, Robinson Crusoe Island, was reported by Thomas Sutcliffe, the former British Governor, shortly after the earthquake that struck the coast of Chile on 20 February 1835. This episode was described by Charles Darwin in his Voyage of the Beagle and extensive mention has been made since then, especially stimulated by a renowned painting by J.M. Rugendas. Because of the apparent causal relation, this event has also been widely cited as an example of remote tectonically triggered eruption. However, there are inconsistencies that pose doubts about the actual occurrence of an eruption. Here we present evidence against the hypothetical eruption based on both the absence of any geological evidence and a reinterpretation of the historical accounts. We first observe that no bathymetric anomaly is present immediately below the place of the depicted ‘eruptive column’. We also note the absence of any deposit or recent volcano morphology and then unravel some incompatibility between the expected volcanological parameters and the featured column. In addition, we analyse the historical records and conclude that they are compatible with a tsunami entering the bay. By means of numerical simulations we further demonstrate that the accounts well match with the expected behaviour of a distant earthquake-triggered tsunami. We infer that some tsunami-related processes (sound waves, rockfalls, lightning) may have been misunderstood at that time. The latter corresponds to the current knowledge of natural processes but also could have been deliberatively amplified in Sutcliffe’s report. Our multidisciplinary approach provides full consistent geographical evidence of a fact that did not happen. This finding is relevant from the hazard’s perspective, but also for the science of earthquakes and eruptions, or the knowledge of processes that control the late secondary volcanism at oceanic islands and seamounts.

Tsunamis are among the most significant hazards in coastal settlements. Mitigation measures have been focused mainly on physical aspects, and few studies have addressed vulnerability and resilience in a multidimensional approach. The main objective of the present work is to assess changes in vulnerability and, consequently, risk, considering a time-space dimension. Three deterministic tsunami scenarios based on historical events were analyzed, and vulnerability analysis with an emphasis on social cohesion and community organization in prereconstruction (2012) and post-reconstruction (2017) conditions was carried out using physical, socioeconomic and social organization variables. The extreme scenario was found to be a 2010-like tsunami, and high levels of social trust and community cooperation were found in pre-reconstruction conditions, which decreased in post-reconstruction conditions due to the relocation of the affected population to other parts of the region. Therefore, it can be concluded that even though physical aspects are important for improving the livability of an affected place and the quality of life of its inhabitants, intentionally biased reconstruction processes (focused mainly on physical aspects) do not effectively reduce risk. Finally, it is crucial to include social capital and social resilience in public policies to implement more comprehensive and successful reconstruction processes.

In the case of a near-field tsunami event, coastal residents must quickly become aware of the potential danger of a tsunami taking place and start taking actions to evacuate. The present paper aims to show which types of evacuation triggers worked amongst coastal residents with different characteristics and backgrounds by conducting a comparative analysis of four recent near-field tsunami events. The results of the analysis showed that basic knowledge about tsunamis had been spreading throughout the areas studied, which triggered many people to evacuate soon after feeling ground motion, almost regardless of how frequently each area had experienced tsunami events in the past. Educational activities and community-based efforts appear to be some of the reasons that can explain this finding. However, because some people in areas with fewer past experiences only evacuated after noticing last-minute signs and there is a nonnegligible number of visitors present in the coastline of certain communities, continuous efforts toward developing tsunami awareness are still needed. The results of the analysis also showed that in areas with fewer past experiences, people were more likely to wait for messages from the authorities to decide to evacuate. This finding highlights the importance of teaching local residents and visitors how a tsunami can reach a given area in a relatively short period of time.

On May 31st, 2019, a tornado hit the city of Talcahuano, Chile, generating significant damage to structures and leaving one person dead. The objective of the present paper is to report on damage to structures in Talcahuano. A preliminary survey was performed by the Municipality of Talcahuano and covered the entire affected area with a cellphone web application used to report the severity and distribution of damage. A more comprehensive damage survey was conducted in the Brisa del Sol neighborhood in the Medio Camino area by the UCSC team to assess the damage distribution within an area with well-defined and homogeneous building typologies. The results of the field surveys showed that the tornado behaved as a skipping tornado and that most damage to houses consisted of wall opening damage, roof sheathing failure, and wall cover removal (EF0), followed by partial roof removal(EF1). It was noticeable that self-built systems (house additions) were more damaged than original houses, which may be explained by the fact that such structures do not always meet minimum building standards. It is recommended that field surveys conducted by municipalities and the Ministry of Social Development considertypical damage types rather than just categories such as minor, moderate, or major. Finally, it is recommendedthat the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures such as stricter wind load provisions and dual-objective tornado design philosophy in the Concepci´on-Talcahuano area be analyzed.

One of the most important aspects in tsunami studies is the behaviour of the wave when it approaches the coast. Information on physical parameters that characterize waves is often limited because of the difculties in achieving accurate measurements at the time of the event. The impact of a tsunami on the coast is governed by nonlinear physics, such as turbulence with spatial and temporal variability. The use of the smoothed particle hydrodynamic method (SPH) presents advantages over models based on two-dimensional shallow waters equations, because the assumed vertical velocity simplifes the hydrodynamics in two dimensions. The study presented here reports numerical SPH simulations of the tsunami event which occurred in Coquimbo (Chile) in September, 2015. On the basis of the reconstruction of the physical parameters that characterized this event (fow velocities, direction and water elevations), calibrated by a reference model, the force values on buildings in the study area were numerically calculated and compared with an estimate given by the Chilean Structural Design Standard. Discussion and conclusions of the comparison of both methodologies are presented, including an analysis of the infuence of the topographic details of the model in the estimation of hydrodynamic forces.

Central Chile is exposed to tsunami hazard, and large earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred over the last 500 years. Tsunami hazard analysis in Chile has been traditionally implemented by means of a deterministic approach, which is based on historical events and uniform slip distribution. The objective of the present study is to improve tsunami hazard analysis in central Chile (30°S to 38°S). To encompass the purpose, stochastic earthquake scenarios of magnitude Mw 8.8 to 9.2 were generated. Two different sets of stochastic tsunami scenarios were selected by means of the Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM), which were applied to Quintero bay to perform a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA). The results showed that PTHA of Quintero bay from stochastic tsunami scenarios agrees with paleotsunami records in the bay, while a deterministic tsunami scenario underestimated the hazard. Two sets (50 and 100 scenarios, respectively) give similar results when smaller return periods are analyzed. However, for larger return periods (Unknown node type: font 2000 yr) the set of 100 scenarios show better results consistent with previous paleoseismological findings. The methodology implemented here can be replicated in other seismic regions in Chile as well as in other active subduction zones, thus, both near field and far field events can be analyzed.