Dr. Aranguiz-Muñoz, Rafael

In 2015 and 2017 unusual ocean and atmospheric conditions produced many years’ worth of rainfall in short periods over Northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, resulting in catastrophic flooding in the town of Chañaral. However, the town is not only at risk of fluvial flooding, it is also at risk of tsunamis. Through a community mapping exercise, the authors attempted to establish the level of community awareness about tsunamis, and contrasted it with that of other types of water-related hazards facing the town (namely that of flooding due to high intensity rain). This was then compared with the results of field surveys and tsunami hazard simulations, indicating than overall the community appears to have better awareness than authorities about the threat posed by these types of events. The authors thus concluded that in cases when the community has a high level of hazard awareness (which in the case of Chile was the result of traditional knowledge being transmitted from previous generations) it would be advantageous to include them in discussions on how to improve disaster resilience.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the need to rebuild better after a disaster to ensure that the at-risk communities can withstand a similar or stronger shock in the future. In the present work, the authors analyzed the reconstruction paths through a comparative analysis of the perspective of a community in Japan and another in Chile, and their respective local governments. While both countries are at risk to tsunamis, they follow different reconstruction philosophies. Data was gathered through key informant interviews of community members and local government officials, by adapting and modifying the Building Resilience to Adapt to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) 3As framework to a tsunami scenario. The 3As represent anticipatory, adaptive, and absorptive capacities as well as transformative capacities and respondents were asked to rate this according to their perspectives. It was found that while both communities perceive that much is to be done in recovery, Kirikiri has a more holistic and similar perspective of the recovery with their government officials as compared to Dichato. This shows that community reconstruction and recovery from a disaster requires a holistic participation and understanding.

This study assesses physical infrastructure vulnerability for infrastructure network components exposed during the 2015 Illapel tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile. We analyse road and utility pole vulnerability to damage, based on interpolated and simulated tsunami hazard intensity (flow depth, flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux) and network component characteristics. A Random Forest Model and Spearman’s Rank correlation test are applied to analyse variable importance and monotonic relationships, with respect to damage, between tsunami hazards and network component attributes. These models and tests reveal that flow depth correlates higher with damage, relative to flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux. Scour (for roads and utility poles) and debris strikes (for utility poles) are strongly correlated with damage. A cumulative link model methodology is used to fit fragility curves. These fragility curves reveal that, in response to flow depth, Coquimbo roads have higher vulnerability than those analysed in previous tsunami event studies, while utility poles demonstrate lower vulnerability than with previous studies. Although we identify tsunami flow depth as the most important hydrodynamic hazard intensity metric, for causing road and utility pole damage, multiple characteristics correlate with damage and should also be considered when classifying infrastructure damage levels.

Tsunami inundation maps are crucial for understanding the impact of tsunamis and planning mitigation measures. Our research focuses on creating a database of stochastic tsunami scenarios along the Chilean subduction zone and probabilistic inundation maps for 11 coastal cities. We divided the Chile-Perú subduction zone into four seismic segments based on historical seismicity. Stochastic rupture scenarios, ranging from 8.0 to 9.6 magnitudes, were generated using the Karhunen-Loeve expansion. The Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM) helped select representative tsunami scenarios for each segment and magnitude bin. We then used the NEOWAVE model to simulate these scenarios to an inundation level, creating probabilistic tsunami maps for various return periods. Our findings reveal that local geography significantly influences tsunami inundation, with some areas facing high inundation risks while others experience minimal impacts. As a result, a uniform planning and design criterion across the entire country is not advisable; site-specific studies are necessary. These probabilistic scenarios can provide tailored solutions for different Chilean coastal cities, enhancing their resilience. Additionally, this research marks the first comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Chilean coast, considering multiple seismic sources, marking a crucial step toward full tsunami risk assessment for coastal communities.

On September 16, 2015 a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake took place off the coast of the Coquimbo Region, Chile. Three tsunami survey teams covered approximately 700 km of the Pacific coast. The teams surveyed the area, recording 83 tsunami flow depth and runup measurements. The maximum runup was found to be 10.8 m at only one small bay, in front of the inferred tsunami source area. However, it was observed that runup in other locations rarely exceed 6 m. Tsunami runup was larger than those of the 2014 Pisagua event, despite the similar earthquake magnitude. Moreover, tsunami arrival times were found to be shorter than those of previous tsunamis along the Chilean subduction zone. Numerical simulations of the tsunami event showed a good agreement with field data, highlighting that tsunami arrival time and the spatial variation of the tsunami amplitudes were strongly influenced by the bathymetry, coastal morphology and the slip distribution of the causative earthquake.