Research Outputs
Seismic and coastal vulnerability assessment model for buildings in Chile
This article proposes a vulnerability assessment model for evaluating buildings’ expected seismic performance, as well as their vulnerability to tsunamis. The objective of this assessment is to provide appropriate information for decision makers regarding the need of repairs and reinforcement of buildings or other mitigation measures that need to be applied in a territory. A procedure for assessing seismic vulnerability and another methodology for evaluating tsunami vulnerability faced by coastal structures is presented. Finally, a method that integrates both procedures is proposed, providing a combined index of vulnerability. The assessment model was applied to the central area of the city of Talcahuano, Chile, which was affected by the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami.
Damage assessment of the May 31st, 2019, Talcahuano tornado, Chile
On May 31st, 2019, a tornado hit the city of Talcahuano, Chile, generating significant damage to structures and leaving one person dead. The objective of the present paper is to report on damage to structures in Talcahuano. A preliminary survey was performed by the Municipality of Talcahuano and covered the entire affected area with a cellphone web application used to report the severity and distribution of damage. A more comprehensive damage survey was conducted in the Brisa del Sol neighborhood in the Medio Camino area by the UCSC team to assess the damage distribution within an area with well-defined and homogeneous building typologies. The results of the field surveys showed that the tornado behaved as a skipping tornado and that most damage to houses consisted of wall opening damage, roof sheathing failure, and wall cover removal (EF0), followed by partial roof removal(EF1). It was noticeable that self-built systems (house additions) were more damaged than original houses, which may be explained by the fact that such structures do not always meet minimum building standards. It is recommended that field surveys conducted by municipalities and the Ministry of Social Development considertypical damage types rather than just categories such as minor, moderate, or major. Finally, it is recommendedthat the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures such as stricter wind load provisions and dual-objective tornado design philosophy in the Concepci´on-Talcahuano area be analyzed.
Determinant factors in personal decision-making to adopt COVID-19 prevention measures in Chile
The pandemic has challenged countries to develop stringent measures to reduce infections and keep the population healthy. However, the greatest challenge is understanding the process of adopting self-care measures by individuals in different countries. In this research, we sought to understand the behavior of individuals who take self-protective action. We selected the risk homeostasis approach to identify relevant variables associated with the risk of contagion and the Protective Action Decision Model to understand protective decision-making in the pandemic. Subsequently, we conducted an exploratory survey to identify whether the same factors, as indicated in the literature, impact Chile’s adoption of prevention measures. The variables gender, age, and trust in authority behave similarly to those found in the literature. However, socioeconomic level, education, and media do not impact the protection behaviors adopted to avoid contagion. Furthermore, the application of the Protective Action Decision Model is adequate to understand the protective measures in the case of a pandemic. Finally, women have a higher risk perception and adopt more protective measures, and in contrast, young people between 18 and 30 years of age are the least concerned about COVID-19 infection.
Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: A novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption
All decision-making processes are complex and include a high number of variables. Particularly, decisions related to disaster risk reduction despite having an inherent uncertainty, depend on many factors associated with the inhabitants in danger, risk disaster management authorities, previous experiences, among others. Although considerable research has been carried out to understand the evacuation processes undergoing among different types of natural hazards, few of them consider psychosocial variables under a dynamic approach. This research proposes a novel way of representing decision making using the risk homeostasis theory approach. We developed a multi-method simulation model to gain an understanding of how individuals react and what are the decision-making processes undergoing a volcanic eruption. For this, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model that captures the psychosocial decision-making process of individuals facing a volcanic eruption. This theory proposes that individuals will make decisions to balance their levels of perception and acceptance of risk and that, in addition, they depend on certain motivational and cognitive variables. Once the evacuation decision making was captured by the SD model, we represented the evacuation process through agent-based simulation based on the relationship between evacuation probability and the diference between risk perception and risk acceptance levels. For experimentation and validation methods, we worked with the 2008 Chaitén (southern Chile) volcanic eruption and further population evacuation as a use case scenario.
A methodological approach to improve the performance in operating room management
This research seeks to improve the service quality provided in Operating Rooms through a Key Performance Indicators (KPI) system based on the analysis of processes and resources used in three surgical units in Chile. This methodology integrates two frameworks: Lean Healthcare and Activity Based Costing. We analyzed these Operating Rooms to establish standard procedures and surgical costs. The proposed methodology includes the following four stages: (i) Identifying macro-processes in the Health Care Unit; (ii) Describing the macro-processes and their healthcare objectives; (iii) Analyzing and standardizing the described processes; and (iv) Generating indicators aimed at cost-control and indicators aimed at reducing activity-duration variability. The KPIs support the reduction of surgery variability, maintain low overhead costs, and set appropriate goals for the: (i) pre-operative; (ii) intraoperative; and (iii) postoperative stages. The implementation of Activity Based Costing, Ishikawa Diagram, and Value Stream Map allowed to identify the resources used in each activity performed, the costs of the activities, and the processes required to provide each surgery. Sample results, of the methodology and proposed application, include the identification of the three most expensive activities, which are: Provide total intravenous anesthesia, Perform postoperative nursing care and Monitor vital signs. These activities represent 29% of the total cost of an operating room. In addition, twelve process indicators were defined, such as Patient transfer time to OR and Extended use of OR. All of these indicators, processes and cost indicators, will likely improve the management of the operating rooms.
The contribution of tsunami evacuation analysis to evacuation planning in Chile: Applying a multi-perspective research design
Research on evacuation behavior in natural disasters provides a valuable contribution in the development of effective short- and long-term strategies in disaster risk management (DRM). Many studies address evacuation simulation utilizing mathematical modeling approaches or GIS-based simulation. In this contribution, we perform a detailed analysis of an entire evacuation process from the decision to evacuate right up to the arrival at a safe zone. We apply a progressive research design in the community of Talcahuano, Chile by means of linking a social science approach, deploying standardized questionnaires for the tsunami affected population, and a GISbased simulation. The questionnaire analyzes evacuation behavior in both an event-based historical scenario and a hypothetical future scenario. Results reveal three critical issues: evacuation time, distance to the evacuation zone, and method of transportation. In particular, the excessive use of cars has resulted in congestion of street sections in past evacuations, and will most probably also pose a problem in a future evacuation event. As evacuation by foot is generally recommended by DRM, the results are extended by a GIS-based modelling simulating evacuation by foot. Combining the findings of both approaches allows for added value, providing more comprehensive insights into evacuation planning. Future research may take advantage of this multiperspective research design, and integrate social science findings in a more detailed manner. Making use of invaluable local knowledge and past experience of the affected population in evacuation planning is likely to help decrease the magnitude of a disaster, and, ultimately, save lives.