Dr. Lara-Peña, Carlos

Northern Patagonia is characterized by multiple rivers that discharge considerable amounts of freshwater into the coastal ocean, forming large river plumes that influence hydrographic and ecological processes. In this study, we use satellite ocean color data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of turbid freshwater plumes in the inner waters of northern Patagonia for the first time, with a focus on the connections to river discharge and large-scale climatic variability. The turbidity signal from the surface reflectance product centered at 645 nm, Rrs(645), correlates well with peaks in river discharge data and surface salinity minima from boat-based profiles and a surface buoy, validating its use for the identification of turbid river plumes in the region. The seasonal climatology of Rrs(645) showed the presence of large river plumes throughout the year, with variability associated mainly to that of river discharge. Analysis of Rrs(645) fields under low and high discharge conditions allowed for the identification of a threshold value to delineate plume fronts and determine the probability of plume occurrence. EOF analysis reveals the dominant modes of plume variability, associated to turbidity differences between the coastal margin and deeper waters and to in-phase variability of large river plumes throughout the study area. The largest plume event occurred in year 2008, during negative (cold) phases of ENSO (La Niña) and PDO but a positive phase of SAM. The severe drought event of 2016 that occurred during positives phase of ENSO (El Niño), PDO and SAM is well captured by the EOF analysis and is characterized by large negative anomalies in the Rrs(645) signal. In general, complex co-variations are observed between monthly anomalies of Rrs(645) and the ENSO, PDO and SAM indices, highlighting the heterogeneity of climatic regulation in the region.

Spatial synchrony occurs when geographically separated time series exhibit correlated temporal variability. Studies of synchrony between different environmental variables within marine ecosystems worldwide have highlighted the extent of system responses to exogenous large-scale forcing. However, these spatial connections remain largely unstudied in marine systems, particularly complex coastlines, where a paucity of field observations precludes the analysis of time series. Here, we used time-frequency analyses based on wavelet and wavelet coherence (WC) analysis to quantify the synchrony (co-variations) between environmental time series derived from MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) in the topographically complex inner sea of Chiloé (ISC, 41–44°S) for the 2003–2022 period. We find that the strength of the synchrony between chlorophyll a (𝐶ℎ𝑙𝑎) and turbid river plumes (for which we use remote sensing reflectance at 645 nm, 𝑅𝑟𝑠645) varies between the northern and southern areas of the ISC; higher synchrony, measured as the WC between these variables, is observed along the northern basin where water and particle exchanges with the Pacific Ocean are reduced. The WC analysis showed higher synchrony between these variables, with dominant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year resulting from the hydrological regime of the freshwater input in the area that persisted throughout the 2004–2018 period. Our results suggest that the strong and significant spatial synchrony at the regional scale is likely related to the phases of large-scale climatic oscillations, as inferred through the partial wavelet coherence analysis. Potential mechanisms driving spatial synchrony are discussed in the context of climate and oceanographic regimes in the area.

Coastal upwelling ecosystems support some of the most productive fisheries of the planet together with a large shellfish aquaculture sector that depends on oceanographic processes to deliver planktonic larvae to replenish and feed the farmed stock. Coastal shellfish aquaculture operations in Chile and Perú have experienced large interannual fluctuations in larval supply over the past decade, yet the drivers of such variability remain unidentified. We focused on the effects of environmental variability on larval supply of the farmed Peruvian bay scallop Argopecten purpuratus in a bay in northern Chile (Tongoy Bay, 30∘ S) that accounts for over 90% of countrywide landings. We examined the hypothesis that the environmental processes governing larval supply were shared with wild benthic invertebrates with planktonic larval development and compared time series of larval abundance for the scallop with larval supply rates to benthic populations of two well-studied wild intertidal species: the Chthamalid barnacle Jehlius cirratus and the purple mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. To this end, we examined the cross-correlation of larval supply to environmental variability using MODIS satellite fields of sea surface temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a) and fluorescence line height (nFLH), together with three climate indices relevant for the south east Pacific sector: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO). Our results showed that over the five-year study period (2009–2013), patterns of larval supply to the scallop population were related to interannual variability in the environmental processes as captured by their Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), likely to adult condition before spawning. Surprisingly, larval supply for none of the wild species showed a clear association to the EOFs. In contrast, scallops and wild species showed significant association to lower frequency climate variability as captured by the SOI and the PDO, but not the AAO. Results suggest that larval supply patterns to Tongoy Bay may be modulated by regional patterns of climatic variability, particularly of tropical origin. Thus, changes in coastal oceanography associated with ongoing changes in global climate could have strong and lasting effects on the supply of seedstock for wild and cultivated species across this eastern boundary coastal system and argue for the establishment of long-term ocean observing and early warning systems along the region.