Dr. Lara-Peña, Carlos

Marine mussels are one of the most important sources of cultivated shellfish worldwide, particularly among middle- and low-income countries where they are a key food source for coastal communities. Climate Change is bound to have a large impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for the mussel species cultivated throughout the world. To examine these impacts on mussel aquaculture and global food security, we evaluated the distribution of suitable current and future habitats for the six more widely cultivated mussel species under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario using ecological niche modelling. Occurrence records were obtained from online databases and the literature. The models had a good performance in predicting the current distribution of the six study species. In future scenarios, suitable mussel habitats were projected to shift poleward, with gains at higher latitudes and losses at lower latitudes. By 2050, significant impacts were projected along the Mediterranean coast for Mytilus galloprovincialis, an important mariculture species in Europe, and in Southeast Asia for the tropical green mussel Perna viridis. Overall, our predictions suggested that range shifts could create opportunities to expand mussel farming to higher latitudes, yet loss of suitable habitat in historically productive growing areas could disrupt current mussel aquaculture regions, highlighting the need for immediate action. Therefore, achieving a more nuanced understanding of the spatial changes in the geographic distribution of suitable habitats should be the first step in increasing the adaptive capacity of the mussel aquaculture sector, and ensuring the future supply of this key source of aquafood.

The coastal ocean off western Patagonia is one of the main coastal regions with high freshwater inputs from rivers, rain, and glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere. This study conducts an analysis of the seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface salinity and meridional geostrophic transports, specifically focusing on the Cape Horn Current, using improved satellite-derived data of sea surface salinity (SSS) and geostrophic velocities spanning an ∼11-year period (September 2011–August 2022). Our results reveal a clear salinity minimum in a coastal band between 42–54°S associated with the highest freshwater content. The average geostrophic currents are stronger south of 49°S, in line with the location of the Cape Horn Current. The average salinity minimum tends to disappear south of 54°S, with salinity values increasing slightly southward. The seasonal cycle of salinity shows the most pronounced minimum in summer (∼33.2–33.4). The greatest variability in salinity (standard deviation of salinity fields) occurs in the southern region of the Cape Horn Current. Hovmöller plots reveal two cores of minimum salinity observed in spring and summer (∼33.3–33.4). The freshwater off the Gulf of Penas contributes to the northern core. The meridional geostrophic transport differs between the northern and southern sections, with transports predominantly towards the Equator (Pole) north (south) of about 47–48°S during spring–summer. There is a marked seasonal variability in the magnitude and northern limit of the southward-flowing Cape Horn Current, being extended further north during winter and with a maximum average magnitude during summer–fall (about −2×104 m2 s−1). On the interannual scale, a major drop in surface salinity occurred off northern and central Patagonia during 2018–2019. Finally, a potential long-term freshening trend is observed in the coastal area off southern Patagonia (south of 52°S), although prolonged data records are essential to confirm this pattern.

Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an indicator and optical proxy of terrestrial processes such as land use with allochthonous material fluxes, biogeochemical cycles, and water quality in coastal zones influenced by rivers. However, the role of land use changes on the spatial and temporal availability of CDOM has been poorly explored in Chile. Here, we studied two watersheds with similar climates and contrasting land use patterns in northern Patagonia considering the sampling of CDOM in their estuarine and adjacent coastal ocean. An empirical algorithm with the coefficients adjusted to our study areas to estimate CDOM was applied to Landsat 7 and 8 images to examine temporal variability of CDOMest from 2001 to 2011 and 2013–2020. Our results showed an increasing trend of CDOMest in both areas. Different trends in land use patterns between the two watersheds showed a significant correlation with CDOMest and contrasting associations with environmental variables. Higher humification was found in Yaldad in comparison with Colu. In both areas, allochthonous materials predominated, especially during austral spring according to the low values of the Fluorescence Index (FI). Our results highlight the potential of CDOMest to parameterize biogeochemical cycling models and to further understand the dynamics of CDOM in coastal ecosystems.

Turbidity is associated with the loss of water transparency due to the presence of particles, sediments, suspended solids, and organic or inorganic compounds in the water, of natural or anthropogenic origin. Our study aimed to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of turbidity from Sentinel-2 (S2) images in the Reloncaví sound and fjord, in Northern Patagonia, Chile, a coastal ecosystem that is intensively used by finfish and shellfish aqua culture. To this end, we downloaded 123 S2 images and assembled a five-year time series (2016–2020) covering five study sites (R1 to R5) located along the axis of the fjord and seaward into the sound. We used Acolite to perform the atmospheric correction and estimate turbidity with two algorithms proposed by Nechad et al. (2009, 2016 Nv09 and Nv16, respectively). When compared to match-up, and in situ measurements, both algorithms had the same performance (R2 = 0.40). The Nv09 algorithm, however, yielded smaller errors than Nv16 (RMSE = 0.66 FNU and RMSE = 0.84 FNU, respectively). Results from true-color imagery and two Nechad algorithms singled an image from the austral autumn of 2019 as the one with the highest turbidity. Similarly, three images from the 2020 austral autumn (May 20, 25, 30) also exhibited high turbidity values. The turbid plumes with the greatest extent occurred in the autumn of 2019 and 2020, coinciding with the most severe storms and runoff events of the year, and the highest turbidity values. Temporal trends in turbidity were not significant at any of the study sites. However, turbidity trends at sites R1 and R2 suggested an increasing trend, while the other sites showed the opposite trend. Site R1 recorded the highest turbidity values, and the lowest values were recorded at R5 in the center of the sound. The month of May was characterized by the highest turbidity values. The application of algorithms from high-resolution satellite images proved to be effective for the estimation and mapping of this water quality parameter in the study area. The use of S2 imagery unraveled a predictable spatial and temporal structure of turbidity patterns in this optically complex aquatic environment. Our results suggest that the availability of in situ data and the continued evaluation of the performance of the Nechad algorithms can yield significant insights into the dynamics and impacts of turbid waters in this important coastal ecosystem.

Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat‐forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio‐ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

Spatial synchrony occurs when geographically separated time series exhibit correlated temporal variability. Studies of synchrony between different environmental variables within marine ecosystems worldwide have highlighted the extent of system responses to exogenous large-scale forcing. However, these spatial connections remain largely unstudied in marine systems, particularly complex coastlines, where a paucity of field observations precludes the analysis of time series. Here, we used time-frequency analyses based on wavelet and wavelet coherence (WC) analysis to quantify the synchrony (co-variations) between environmental time series derived from MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) in the topographically complex inner sea of Chiloé (ISC, 41–44°S) for the 2003–2022 period. We find that the strength of the synchrony between chlorophyll a (𝐶ℎ𝑙𝑎) and turbid river plumes (for which we use remote sensing reflectance at 645 nm, 𝑅𝑟𝑠645) varies between the northern and southern areas of the ISC; higher synchrony, measured as the WC between these variables, is observed along the northern basin where water and particle exchanges with the Pacific Ocean are reduced. The WC analysis showed higher synchrony between these variables, with dominant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year resulting from the hydrological regime of the freshwater input in the area that persisted throughout the 2004–2018 period. Our results suggest that the strong and significant spatial synchrony at the regional scale is likely related to the phases of large-scale climatic oscillations, as inferred through the partial wavelet coherence analysis. Potential mechanisms driving spatial synchrony are discussed in the context of climate and oceanographic regimes in the area.

Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale.

Human activities have led to an increase in land use change, with effects on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. The impact of contrasting land uses along river basins on the concentration of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) reaching the coastal zone, and its relationship with the carbonate system of the adjacent coastal ocean, is poorly known. To understand the relationship between land use change, CDOM and its influence on the carbonate system, two watersheds with contrasting land uses in southern Chile were studied. The samples were collected at eight stations between river and adjacent coastal areas, during three sampling campaigns in the austral summer and spring. Chemical and biological samples were analyzed in the laboratory according to standard protocols. Landsat 8 satellite images of the study area were used for identification and supervised classification using remote sensing tools. The Yaldad River basin showed 82% of native forest and the Colu River basin around 38% of grassland (agriculture). Low total alkalinity (AT) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC), but high CDOM proportions were typically observed in freshwater. A higher CDOM and humic-like compounds concentration was observed along the river-coastal ocean continuum in the Yaldad basin, characterized by a predominance of native forests. In contrast, nutrient concentrations, AT and DIC, were higher in the Colu area. Low CaCO3 saturation state (ΩAr < 2) and even undersaturation conditions were observed at the coastal ocean at Yaldad. A strong negative correlation between AT, DIC and ΩAr with CDOM/fDOM, suggested the influence of terrestrial material on the seawater carbon chemistry. Our results provide robust evidence that land uses in river basins can influence CDOM/fDOM proportion and its influence on the carbonate chemistry of the adjacent coastal, with potential implications for the shellfish farming activity in this region

Northern Patagonia is characterized by multiple rivers that discharge considerable amounts of freshwater into the coastal ocean, forming large river plumes that influence hydrographic and ecological processes. In this study, we use satellite ocean color data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of turbid freshwater plumes in the inner waters of northern Patagonia for the first time, with a focus on the connections to river discharge and large-scale climatic variability. The turbidity signal from the surface reflectance product centered at 645 nm, Rrs(645), correlates well with peaks in river discharge data and surface salinity minima from boat-based profiles and a surface buoy, validating its use for the identification of turbid river plumes in the region. The seasonal climatology of Rrs(645) showed the presence of large river plumes throughout the year, with variability associated mainly to that of river discharge. Analysis of Rrs(645) fields under low and high discharge conditions allowed for the identification of a threshold value to delineate plume fronts and determine the probability of plume occurrence. EOF analysis reveals the dominant modes of plume variability, associated to turbidity differences between the coastal margin and deeper waters and to in-phase variability of large river plumes throughout the study area. The largest plume event occurred in year 2008, during negative (cold) phases of ENSO (La Niña) and PDO but a positive phase of SAM. The severe drought event of 2016 that occurred during positives phase of ENSO (El Niño), PDO and SAM is well captured by the EOF analysis and is characterized by large negative anomalies in the Rrs(645) signal. In general, complex co-variations are observed between monthly anomalies of Rrs(645) and the ENSO, PDO and SAM indices, highlighting the heterogeneity of climatic regulation in the region.

Coastal upwelling ecosystems support some of the most productive fisheries of the planet together with a large shellfish aquaculture sector that depends on oceanographic processes to deliver planktonic larvae to replenish and feed the farmed stock. Coastal shellfish aquaculture operations in Chile and Perú have experienced large interannual fluctuations in larval supply over the past decade, yet the drivers of such variability remain unidentified. We focused on the effects of environmental variability on larval supply of the farmed Peruvian bay scallop Argopecten purpuratus in a bay in northern Chile (Tongoy Bay, 30∘ S) that accounts for over 90% of countrywide landings. We examined the hypothesis that the environmental processes governing larval supply were shared with wild benthic invertebrates with planktonic larval development and compared time series of larval abundance for the scallop with larval supply rates to benthic populations of two well-studied wild intertidal species: the Chthamalid barnacle Jehlius cirratus and the purple mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. To this end, we examined the cross-correlation of larval supply to environmental variability using MODIS satellite fields of sea surface temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a) and fluorescence line height (nFLH), together with three climate indices relevant for the south east Pacific sector: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO). Our results showed that over the five-year study period (2009–2013), patterns of larval supply to the scallop population were related to interannual variability in the environmental processes as captured by their Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), likely to adult condition before spawning. Surprisingly, larval supply for none of the wild species showed a clear association to the EOFs. In contrast, scallops and wild species showed significant association to lower frequency climate variability as captured by the SOI and the PDO, but not the AAO. Results suggest that larval supply patterns to Tongoy Bay may be modulated by regional patterns of climatic variability, particularly of tropical origin. Thus, changes in coastal oceanography associated with ongoing changes in global climate could have strong and lasting effects on the supply of seedstock for wild and cultivated species across this eastern boundary coastal system and argue for the establishment of long-term ocean observing and early warning systems along the region.