Research Outputs
An adaptive basin management rule to improve water allocation resilience under climate variability and change-A case study in the Laja lake basin in Southern Chile
Due to population growth and expansion in the agricultural and industrial sectors, the demand for water has increased. However, water availability in some regions has decreased due to climate change trends and variability, necessitating innovative strategies and adaptation in water allocation to avoid conflicts among users in a hydrological system. This paper presents a resilience analysis and a conceptual hydrological modeling approach to evaluate the resilience capacity of a new water allocation rule in the Laja Lake basin in southern Chile. Resilience assessments included absorptive and adaptive capacities with four system states: resilient, susceptible, resistant, and vulnerable. A modeling approach was used considering the climate variability uncertainty and climate change trends of the Laja system. Characterization of adaptive and absorptive capacities showed that the Laja Lake basin moved from resistant to vulnerable. Hydrological modeling analyses showed that after a new water allocation agreement, the Laja Lake system is moving from vulnerable to susceptible, since the new rule has more adaptive alternatives to face climate variability. The new rule diminishes the possibilities of conflicts among users, ensuring the fulfillment of water needs for uses such as farming and ecosystem services such as landscaping, and allows for increased water allocation for energy in wet hydrological years.
Integration of Slurry–Total Reflection X-ray fluorescence and machine learning for monitoring arsenic and lead contamination: Case study in Itata valley agricultural soils, Chile
The accuracy of determining arsenic and lead using the optical technique Slurry–Total Reflection X-ray Fluorescence (Slurry-TXRF) was significantly enhanced through the application of a machine learning method, aimed at improving the ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils. The overlapping of the arsenic Kα signal at 10.55 keV with the lead Lα signal at 10.54 keV due to the relatively low resolution of TXRF could compromise the determination of lead. However, by applying a Partial Least Squares (PLS) machine learning algorithm, we mitigated interference variations, resulting in improved selectivity and accuracy. Specifically, the average percentage error was reduced from 15.6% to 9.4% for arsenic (RMSEP improved from 5.6 mg kg−1 to 3.3 mg kg−1) and from 18.9% to 6.8% for lead (RMSEP improved from 12.3 mg kg−1 to 5.03 mg kg−1) compared to the previous univariable model. This enhanced predictive accuracy, within the set of samples concentration range, is attributable to the efficiency of the multivariate calibration first-order advantage in quantifying the presence of interferents. The evaluation of X-ray fluorescence emission signals for 26 different synthetic calibration mixtures confirmed these improvements, overcoming spectral interferences. Additionally, the application of these models enabled the quantification of arsenic and lead in soils from a viticultural subregion of Chile, facilitating the estimation of ecological risk indices in a fast and reliable manner. The results indicate that the contamination level of these soils with arsenic and lead ranges from moderate to considerable.
Analysis of the Relative Importance of the Main Hydrological Processes at Different Temporal Scales in Watersheds of South-Central Chile
In Chile in recent years, changes in precipitation and temperatures have been reported that could affect water resource management and planning. One way of facing these changes is studying and understanding the behavior of hydrological processes at a regional scale and their different temporal scales. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the importance of the hydrological processes of the HBV model at different temporal scales and for different hydrological regimes. To this end, 88 watersheds located in south-central Chile were analyzed using time-varying sensitivity analysis at five different temporal scales (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years). The results show that the model detects the temporality of the most important hydrological processes. In watersheds with a pluvial regime, the greater the temporal scale, the greater the importance of soil water accumulation processes and the lower the importance of surface runoff processes. By contrast, in watersheds with a nival regime, at greater temporal scales, groundwater accumulation and release processes take on greater importance, and soil water release processes are less important.
Estimation of annual maximum and minimum flow trends in a data-scarce basin. Case study of the Allipén river watershed, Chile
Data on historical extreme events provides information not only for water resources planning and management but also for the design of disaster-prevention measures. However, most basins around the globe lack long-term hydro-meteorological information to derive the trend of hydrological extremes. This study aims to investigate a method to estimate maximum and minimum flow trends in basins with limited streamflow records. To carry out this study, data from the Allipén River watershed (Chile), the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model at a daily time step, and an uncertainty analysis were used. Through a calibration using only five years of records, 21-year mean daily flow series were generated and the extreme values derived. To analyze the effect of the length of data availability, 2, 5, and 10 years of flows were eliminated from the analyses. The results show that in the case of 11 years of simulated flows, the annual maximum and minimum flow trends present greater uncertainty than in the cases of 16 and 19 years of simulated flows. Simulating 16 years, however, proved to properly simulate the observed long-term trends. Therefore, in data-scarce areas, the use of a hydrological model to simulate extreme mean daily flows and estimate long-term trends with at least 16 years of meteorological data could be a valid option.
Identifying a minimum time period of streamflow recession records to analyze the behavior of groundwater storage systems: A study in heterogeneous Chilean watersheds
Aquifers are complex systems that present significant challenges in terms of characterization due to the lack or absence of watershed-scale hydrogeological information. An alternative to address the need to characterize watershed-scale aquifer behavior is recession flow analysis. Recession flows are flows sustained by groundwater release from the aquifer. Aquifer behavior can be characterized using recession flow records available from gauging stations, and therefore an indirect measure of aquifer behavior is obtained through watershed-scale recession flow records and analysis. This study seeks to identify the minimum time period necessary to characterize the behavior of groundwater storage systems in watersheds with different geological, morphological, and hydrological characteristics. To this end, various watersheds in south-central Chile underwent recession flow analysis, with eight time periods considered (2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years). The results indicate that 25 years of records are sufficient for the characterization of watershed-scale aquifer behavior, along with the representation of the groundwater storage-release (S-Q) process in watersheds with different geological, morphological, and hydrological characteristics. Additionally, the results show that an initial characterization of the groundwater system behavior in watersheds with different geological characteristics can be carried out with two years of records. This information could be important for practical engineering and the study of groundwater systems in watersheds with limited hydrological and hydrogeological information.
Rapid and convenient assessment of trace element contamination in agricultural soils through Slurry-TXRF and ecological indices: The Nuble Region, Chile as a case study
The study aims to evaluate the applicability of the slurry-TXRF method for estimating background contents and ecological indices in a rapid and convenient way. For this reason, the agricultural soils of the Itata Valley were used as a case study, where 48 soil samples were collected and analyzed. This rapid, minimally sample-intensive, and simultaneous multi-element quantification technique presented high accuracy but lower precision (approx. 20% RSD) compared to the classic total reflection X-ray fluorescence and flame/graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry methods, which require sample digestion. Due to the analytical characteristics of Slurry-TXRF, it can be concluded that the lower precision is likely compensated for, and this method represents a valuable alternative for the rapid and efficient assessment of trace element contamination in agricultural soils. The regional median concentrations of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Cd in the Itata Valley surface soils were found to be 63.7, 9.57, 31.0, 41.1, and 0.56 mg kg−1, respectively, with corresponding upper limits of 47.6, 6.82, 17.0, 30.7, and 0.284 mg kg−1. The ecological indices, including the geoaccumulation index, contamination factor, enrichment factor, and degree of contamination, suggest moderate levels of contamination in the region.
Analysis of the behavior of groundwater storage systems at different time scales in basins of South Central Chile: A study based on flow recession records
Understanding the groundwater storage and release (S-Q) process and its contribution to river flows is essential for different hydrological applications, especially in periods of water scarcity. The S-Q process can be characterized based on recession parameter b, which is the slope of the power–law relationship −dQ/dt = aQb of the recession flow analysis, where recession parameter b represents the linearity of the S-Q process. In various studies, it has been found that this parameter can present high variability, which has been associated with the approach or spatial variability of basin characteristics. However, the variability of parameter b and its relationship with geology and the behavior of groundwater storage over time (evolution over time) have not been sufficiently studied. The objective of this study is to analyze the variability of recession parameter b and its relationship with geological and morphological characteristics and climate variability at different time scales. To this end, 72 drainage basins located in south central Chile were examined via recession flow analysis, considering five different time scales (5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, and 25 years). In addition, to analyze spatial variability patterns and generate groups of basins with similar characteristics, a cluster analysis was carried out. Clusters were obtained using the principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means methods. The results show that in wet periods, the slope of recession parameter b tends to increase (fast drainage process), while in dry periods, the recession slope tends to decrease (slow drainage processes). In general, the results suggest that the variability of recession coefficient b indicates changes in S-Q behavior; therefore, it could be used as an indicator of the sensitivity of a basin to climate variability.
Remote sensing with UAVs for modeling floods: An exploratory approach based on three Chilean rivers
The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has been steadily increasing due to their ability to acquire high-precision ground elevation information at a low cost. However, these devices have limitations in estimating elevations of the water surface and submerged terrain (i.e., channel bathymetry). Therefore, the creation of a digital terrain model (DTM) using UAVs in low-water periods means a greater dry channel surface area and thus reduces the lack of information on the wet area not appropriately measured by the UAV. Under such scenarios, UAV-DTM-derived data present an opportunity for practical engineering in estimating floods; however, the accuracy of estimations against current methods of flood estimations and design needs to be measured. The objective of this study is therefore to develop an exploratory analysis for the creation of hydraulic models of river floods using only UAV-derived topographic information. Hydraulic models were constructed based on DTMs created in (i) the traditional manner, considering the bathymetry measured with RTK-GPS and topography, and via (ii) remote sensing, which involves topography measurement with a UAV and assumes a flat bed in the part of the channel covered by water. The 1D steady-state HEC-RAS model v.5.0.3 was used to simulate floods at different return periods. The applied methodology allows a slightly conservative, efficient, economical, and safe approach for the estimation of floods in rivers, with an RMSE of 6.1, 11.8 and 12.6 cm for the Nicodahue, Bellavista and Curanilahue rivers. The approach has important implications for flood studies, as larger areas can be surveyed, and cost-and time-efficient flood estimations can be performed using affordable UAVs. Further research on this topic is necessary to estimate the limitations and precision in rivers with different morphologies and under different geographical contexts.