Dr. Aranguiz-Muñoz, Rafael

Water level oscillations induced by the ground motion of an earthquake have occasionally been observed in a closed or partially enclosed water system. The generated water disturbances can induce localized flooding, boat collisions, breakage/damage of moored cables due to water disturbances, or even the capsizing of vessels. In this study, the authors focused on cases of seismic water level oscillations in canals and attempted to investigate the potential hazards of and effective countermeasures against them through numerical simulations. The proposed numerical simulation model was first validated by reproducing the water level oscillation that was actually observed at a canal in Mexico City (Xochimilco Canal) during the 2017 Central Mexico Earthquake. The method was then applied to one of the canals in Tokyo (Keihin Canal) to clarify the potential water level fluctuations that can take place due to this phenomenon. The results indicate that while the risks of local inundation would be low, small boats, which can be found in many places in the canal, are at risk of capsizing. Finally, the use of wave-dissipating blocks was found to be an effective countermeasure to decrease the potential for a significant seismic water level oscillation to take place in this canal.

On September 28, 2018 significant tsunami waves, which are considered to have been generated by submarine landslides, struck the shorelines of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. One month after the event, the authors conducted a questionnaire survey of the affected areas (Donggala Regency and Palu City) to collect information on the evacuation behaviour and tsunami awareness of local residents. In the present study, in addition to summarising the overall trend of the survey results using descriptive statistics, a chi-squared test was applied to analyse the significance of the relationship between tsunami awareness and evacuation behaviour and the demographic characteristics of respondents. The analysis of the results demonstrates that although the respondents generally have a high level of tsunami awareness, younger people and Donggala Regency residents have an overall lower understanding of the phenomenon. It was also found that 82.5% of the population evacuated after witnessing others evacuating during the event. As there was no official warning to residents before the arrival of the tsunami, this social trigger played a significant role in prompting evacuation and decreasing the number of casualties. The present study also revealed that many people faced congestion while evacuating (especially in Palu City). This highlights the need to introduce additional tsunami disaster mitigation strategies to ensure that all residents can swiftly evacuate during such incidents.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the need to rebuild better after a disaster to ensure that the at-risk communities can withstand a similar or stronger shock in the future. In the present work, the authors analyzed the reconstruction paths through a comparative analysis of the perspective of a community in Japan and another in Chile, and their respective local governments. While both countries are at risk to tsunamis, they follow different reconstruction philosophies. Data was gathered through key informant interviews of community members and local government officials, by adapting and modifying the Building Resilience to Adapt to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) 3As framework to a tsunami scenario. The 3As represent anticipatory, adaptive, and absorptive capacities as well as transformative capacities and respondents were asked to rate this according to their perspectives. It was found that while both communities perceive that much is to be done in recovery, Kirikiri has a more holistic and similar perspective of the recovery with their government officials as compared to Dichato. This shows that community reconstruction and recovery from a disaster requires a holistic participation and understanding.

To unravel the relationship between earthquake and tsunami using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) changes, we analyzed two Chilean tsunamigenic subduction earthquakes: the 2014 Pisagua Mw 8.1 and the 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3. During the Pisagua earthquake, the TEC changes were detected at the GPS sites located to the north and south of the earthquake epicenter, whereas during the Illapel earthquake, we registered the changes only in the northward direction. Tide-gauge sites mimicked the propagation direction of tsunami waves similar to the TEC change pattern during both earthquakes. The TEC changes were represented by three signals. The initial weaker signal correlated well with Acoustic Rayleigh wave (AWRayleigh), while the following stronger perturbation was interpreted to be caused by Acoustic Gravity wave (AGWepi) and Internal Gravity wave (IGWtsuna) induced by earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis respectively. Inevitably, TEC changes can be utilized to evaluate earthquake occurrence and tsunami propagation within a framework of multi-parameter early warning systems.

In the case of a near-field tsunami event, coastal residents must quickly become aware of the potential danger of a tsunami taking place and start taking actions to evacuate. The present paper aims to show which types of evacuation triggers worked amongst coastal residents with different characteristics and backgrounds by conducting a comparative analysis of four recent near-field tsunami events. The results of the analysis showed that basic knowledge about tsunamis had been spreading throughout the areas studied, which triggered many people to evacuate soon after feeling ground motion, almost regardless of how frequently each area had experienced tsunami events in the past. Educational activities and community-based efforts appear to be some of the reasons that can explain this finding. However, because some people in areas with fewer past experiences only evacuated after noticing last-minute signs and there is a nonnegligible number of visitors present in the coastline of certain communities, continuous efforts toward developing tsunami awareness are still needed. The results of the analysis also showed that in areas with fewer past experiences, people were more likely to wait for messages from the authorities to decide to evacuate. This finding highlights the importance of teaching local residents and visitors how a tsunami can reach a given area in a relatively short period of time.

On May 31st, 2019, a tornado hit the city of Talcahuano, Chile, generating significant damage to structures and leaving one person dead. The objective of the present paper is to report on damage to structures in Talcahuano. A preliminary survey was performed by the Municipality of Talcahuano and covered the entire affected area with a cellphone web application used to report the severity and distribution of damage. A more comprehensive damage survey was conducted in the Brisa del Sol neighborhood in the Medio Camino area by the UCSC team to assess the damage distribution within an area with well-defined and homogeneous building typologies. The results of the field surveys showed that the tornado behaved as a skipping tornado and that most damage to houses consisted of wall opening damage, roof sheathing failure, and wall cover removal (EF0), followed by partial roof removal(EF1). It was noticeable that self-built systems (house additions) were more damaged than original houses, which may be explained by the fact that such structures do not always meet minimum building standards. It is recommended that field surveys conducted by municipalities and the Ministry of Social Development considertypical damage types rather than just categories such as minor, moderate, or major. Finally, it is recommendedthat the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures such as stricter wind load provisions and dual-objective tornado design philosophy in the Concepci´on-Talcahuano area be analyzed.

On September 28, 2018, a large earthquake and its accompanying tsunami waves caused severe damage to the coastal area of Palu Bay, in the central western part of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. To clarify the distribution of tsunami inundation and run-up heights, and damage to coastal communities due to the tsunami, the authors conducted a field survey 1 month after the event. In the inner part of Palu Bay tsunami inundation and run-up heights of more than 4 m were measured at many locations, and severe damage by the tsunami to coastal low-lying settlements was observed. In the areas to the north of the bay and around its entrance the tsunami inundation and run-up heights were lower than in the inner part of the bay. The tsunami inundation distance depended on the topographical features of coastal areas. The southern shore of the bay experienced a longer inundation distance than other shores, though generally severe damage to houses was limited to within around 200 m from the shoreline. The main lessons that can be learnt from the present event are also discussed.

In 2015 and 2017 unusual ocean and atmospheric conditions produced many years’ worth of rainfall in short periods over Northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, resulting in catastrophic flooding in the town of Chañaral. However, the town is not only at risk of fluvial flooding, it is also at risk of tsunamis. Through a community mapping exercise, the authors attempted to establish the level of community awareness about tsunamis, and contrasted it with that of other types of water-related hazards facing the town (namely that of flooding due to high intensity rain). This was then compared with the results of field surveys and tsunami hazard simulations, indicating than overall the community appears to have better awareness than authorities about the threat posed by these types of events. The authors thus concluded that in cases when the community has a high level of hazard awareness (which in the case of Chile was the result of traditional knowledge being transmitted from previous generations) it would be advantageous to include them in discussions on how to improve disaster resilience.

A GIS analysis on the urbanization spread (1725 to present) in the Greater Concepcion Region demonstrates that increasing the tsunami disaster resilience of coastal communities is a pressing issue in Chile, due to the continuous presence of human settlements in tsunami-prone areas. This research assesses the contribution of “hard-infrastructure” for increasing disaster resilience within five coastal towns (Dichato, Coliumo, Tumbes, Penco and Talcahuano). Structures were considered beneficial to resilience-building if they had multi-functional properties which aided in the social and/or economic recovery of the affected community. The assessment was carried out through in-depth interviews with local inhabitants until the point of data-saturation. Results reveal that all surveyed coastal towns had hard-infrastructure that was built after 2010, in the form of promenades and elevated housing. The former structures contributed positively to building economic resilience in Dichato, Talchuano and Penco, through the promotion of tourism and small-scale fishing activities. However, the physical design of the elevated houses was found to only facilitate recovery of community economic functions in Tumbes, while causing strain on the social fabric and possibly hindering tsunami evacuation in all other study sites. The mixed contribution of hard-infrastructure to coastal resilience highlights the need for the de-centralization of planning and reconstruction processes for a successful contextualization of the issue.

Tsunami inundation maps are crucial for understanding the impact of tsunamis and planning mitigation measures. Our research focuses on creating a database of stochastic tsunami scenarios along the Chilean subduction zone and probabilistic inundation maps for 11 coastal cities. We divided the Chile-Perú subduction zone into four seismic segments based on historical seismicity. Stochastic rupture scenarios, ranging from 8.0 to 9.6 magnitudes, were generated using the Karhunen-Loeve expansion. The Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM) helped select representative tsunami scenarios for each segment and magnitude bin. We then used the NEOWAVE model to simulate these scenarios to an inundation level, creating probabilistic tsunami maps for various return periods. Our findings reveal that local geography significantly influences tsunami inundation, with some areas facing high inundation risks while others experience minimal impacts. As a result, a uniform planning and design criterion across the entire country is not advisable; site-specific studies are necessary. These probabilistic scenarios can provide tailored solutions for different Chilean coastal cities, enhancing their resilience. Additionally, this research marks the first comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Chilean coast, considering multiple seismic sources, marking a crucial step toward full tsunami risk assessment for coastal communities.