Research Outputs
Corrigendum to “Analysis of risk assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last decade” [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 357 (2018) 254–260]
The authors regret due to a production error, the following article was wrongly included as part of this regular issue Volume 304C. This article is now replaced with this note and will be included in an upcoming special issue entitled [SI: Vanuatu volcanoes]. Please refer to the DOI and citation details in that version when citing the paper. The Publisher apologizes for the inconvenience. Prodigious emission rates and magma degassing budget of major, trace and radioactive volatile species from Ambrym basaltic volcano, Vanuatu island Arc; Allard et al.; Volume 304, 1 October 2015, Pages 378–402; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.08.022. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: A novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption
All decision-making processes are complex and include a high number of variables. Particularly, decisions related to disaster risk reduction despite having an inherent uncertainty, depend on many factors associated with the inhabitants in danger, risk disaster management authorities, previous experiences, among others. Although considerable research has been carried out to understand the evacuation processes undergoing among different types of natural hazards, few of them consider psychosocial variables under a dynamic approach. This research proposes a novel way of representing decision making using the risk homeostasis theory approach. We developed a multi-method simulation model to gain an understanding of how individuals react and what are the decision-making processes undergoing a volcanic eruption. For this, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model that captures the psychosocial decision-making process of individuals facing a volcanic eruption. This theory proposes that individuals will make decisions to balance their levels of perception and acceptance of risk and that, in addition, they depend on certain motivational and cognitive variables. Once the evacuation decision making was captured by the SD model, we represented the evacuation process through agent-based simulation based on the relationship between evacuation probability and the diference between risk perception and risk acceptance levels. For experimentation and validation methods, we worked with the 2008 Chaitén (southern Chile) volcanic eruption and further population evacuation as a use case scenario.
Damage assessment of the May 31st, 2019, Talcahuano tornado, Chile
On May 31st, 2019, a tornado hit the city of Talcahuano, Chile, generating significant damage to structures and leaving one person dead. The objective of the present paper is to report on damage to structures in Talcahuano. A preliminary survey was performed by the Municipality of Talcahuano and covered the entire affected area with a cellphone web application used to report the severity and distribution of damage. A more comprehensive damage survey was conducted in the Brisa del Sol neighborhood in the Medio Camino area by the UCSC team to assess the damage distribution within an area with well-defined and homogeneous building typologies. The results of the field surveys showed that the tornado behaved as a skipping tornado and that most damage to houses consisted of wall opening damage, roof sheathing failure, and wall cover removal (EF0), followed by partial roof removal(EF1). It was noticeable that self-built systems (house additions) were more damaged than original houses, which may be explained by the fact that such structures do not always meet minimum building standards. It is recommended that field surveys conducted by municipalities and the Ministry of Social Development considertypical damage types rather than just categories such as minor, moderate, or major. Finally, it is recommendedthat the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures such as stricter wind load provisions and dual-objective tornado design philosophy in the Concepci´on-Talcahuano area be analyzed.
Aprendizaje servicio aplicado a la gestión de desastres en establecimientos educacionales municipales
Este trabajo presenta una experiencia de educación en ingeniería orientada a la prevención de desastres, a través de la revisión y adecuación de los planes integrales de seguridad escolar en tres establecimientos educacionales de la comuna de Talcahuano, Chile, a solicitud del Departamento de Educación Municipal. La experiencia se desarrolló en el contexto del curso Desastres naturales y cultura de la prevención de las carreras de Ingeniería Civil e Ingeniería Civil Geológica de la Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, mediante la aplicación de la metodología aprendizaje servicio. El objetivo de la experiencia es que los estudiantes del curso y la comunidad escolar estudiada reconozcan de manera eficaz los riesgos generados por el entorno natural, describan las etapas asociadas a gestión de desastres y colaboren en la generación de una cultura de prevención y preparación frente a ellos. Los resultados obtenidos corresponden a la entrega de planes integrales de seguridad escolar adecuados a los establecimientos estudiados con un diagnóstico de vulnerabilidades y mapa s de riesgo. La experiencia de aprendizaje servicio desarrollada muestra el fomento del compromiso social en los estudiantes y la importancia del aprendizaje orientado a resolver necesidades reales, con una visión integral en su formación profesional.
Resiliencia comunitaria y sentido de comunidad durante la respuesta y recuperación al terremoto-tsunami del año 2010, Talcahuano-Chile
La investigación, tiene entre sus objetivos, describir cómo se expresan las capacidades de afrontamiento de la resiliencia comunitaria en relación al sentido de comunidad en trece familias de la comuna de Talcahuano-Chile, durante el periodo de respuesta y recuperación al desastre del terremoto y tsunami del año 2010. Se optó por un diseño exploratorio cualitativo de carácter transversal bajo una lógica de observación ex-post. A los casos de estudio se les aplica una entrevista semi-estructurada, cuyos discursos son examinados utilizando el Análisis Estructural de Contenido y el Modelo Actancial de la Semántica Estructural. Se concluye que la resiliencia comunitaria es un proceso que emerge en vinculación con el sentido de comunidad, expresado en el compromiso por el bienestar de la comunidad del lugar y en la participación comunitaria en acciones colectivas. Estas son condicionantes sociales que facilitan o limitan la adaptación organizativa de la comunidad y el surgimiento de comportamientos colaborativos, en función de resolver los problemas con mayor rapidez y con el mejor desempeño en el uso de los recursos del territorio.
Analysis of risk assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last decade
There are many methods and scientific research approaches where modeling and understanding on how individuals evaluate natural origin risks. Despite the proficiency and depth of such studies, we evidenced a lack for a holistic approach where the most influencing factors in the individual decision-making process were covered. This research seeks to understand what those factors are, how they relate to each other, and how the behave with respect to individual perception and acceptance of risk. For this, we performed a thorough literature review covering the last decade in relation with the understanding of how these incidence factors affected the perception and acceptance of risk in the communities exposed to volcanic events under the decision-making process. Our research was able to detect how the identified variables influenced each other in this process. We analyzed different study cases found in the literature and, additionally, we propose as a further research a new theoretical approach related to decision-making modeling process under dynamic system that would be valuable as a contribution to risk management.
A methodological approach to improve the performance in operating room management
This research seeks to improve the service quality provided in Operating Rooms through a Key Performance Indicators (KPI) system based on the analysis of processes and resources used in three surgical units in Chile. This methodology integrates two frameworks: Lean Healthcare and Activity Based Costing. We analyzed these Operating Rooms to establish standard procedures and surgical costs. The proposed methodology includes the following four stages: (i) Identifying macro-processes in the Health Care Unit; (ii) Describing the macro-processes and their healthcare objectives; (iii) Analyzing and standardizing the described processes; and (iv) Generating indicators aimed at cost-control and indicators aimed at reducing activity-duration variability. The KPIs support the reduction of surgery variability, maintain low overhead costs, and set appropriate goals for the: (i) pre-operative; (ii) intraoperative; and (iii) postoperative stages. The implementation of Activity Based Costing, Ishikawa Diagram, and Value Stream Map allowed to identify the resources used in each activity performed, the costs of the activities, and the processes required to provide each surgery. Sample results, of the methodology and proposed application, include the identification of the three most expensive activities, which are: Provide total intravenous anesthesia, Perform postoperative nursing care and Monitor vital signs. These activities represent 29% of the total cost of an operating room. In addition, twelve process indicators were defined, such as Patient transfer time to OR and Extended use of OR. All of these indicators, processes and cost indicators, will likely improve the management of the operating rooms.
Seismic and coastal vulnerability assessment model for buildings in Chile
This article proposes a vulnerability assessment model for evaluating buildings’ expected seismic performance, as well as their vulnerability to tsunamis. The objective of this assessment is to provide appropriate information for decision makers regarding the need of repairs and reinforcement of buildings or other mitigation measures that need to be applied in a territory. A procedure for assessing seismic vulnerability and another methodology for evaluating tsunami vulnerability faced by coastal structures is presented. Finally, a method that integrates both procedures is proposed, providing a combined index of vulnerability. The assessment model was applied to the central area of the city of Talcahuano, Chile, which was affected by the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami.
The contribution of tsunami evacuation analysis to evacuation planning in Chile: Applying a multi-perspective research design
Research on evacuation behavior in natural disasters provides a valuable contribution in the development of effective short- and long-term strategies in disaster risk management (DRM). Many studies address evacuation simulation utilizing mathematical modeling approaches or GIS-based simulation. In this contribution, we perform a detailed analysis of an entire evacuation process from the decision to evacuate right up to the arrival at a safe zone. We apply a progressive research design in the community of Talcahuano, Chile by means of linking a social science approach, deploying standardized questionnaires for the tsunami affected population, and a GISbased simulation. The questionnaire analyzes evacuation behavior in both an event-based historical scenario and a hypothetical future scenario. Results reveal three critical issues: evacuation time, distance to the evacuation zone, and method of transportation. In particular, the excessive use of cars has resulted in congestion of street sections in past evacuations, and will most probably also pose a problem in a future evacuation event. As evacuation by foot is generally recommended by DRM, the results are extended by a GIS-based modelling simulating evacuation by foot. Combining the findings of both approaches allows for added value, providing more comprehensive insights into evacuation planning. Future research may take advantage of this multiperspective research design, and integrate social science findings in a more detailed manner. Making use of invaluable local knowledge and past experience of the affected population in evacuation planning is likely to help decrease the magnitude of a disaster, and, ultimately, save lives.
Analysis of risk assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last decade
During the history of mankind, natural disasters have had severe repercussions on the different ecosystems, with volcanic eruptions being a clear example of this. This review is responsible for gathering the most important volatile hazards assessment research of the last decade with the objective of knowing the state of the art in relation to the studies of people's risk perception and acceptance in communities threatened by the danger of volcanic eruptions. In addition, this study includes the analysis of several cases across different countries. The results that this research offers serve as a frame of reference to determine and understand how resilient a community affected by the volatile hazards can be, since they are able to identify the main incident factors of risk that affect the communities to different degrees according to the context at the time of making the risk judgment. On the other hand, through this review, it is proposed as a future research topic to understand the levels of risk acceptance of individuals, due to the fact that the studies related to this subject are scarce.