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  4. Identifiability analysis: towards constrained equifinality and reduced uncertainty in a conceptual model
 
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Identifiability analysis: towards constrained equifinality and reduced uncertainty in a conceptual model
Dr. Muñoz-Ortiz, Enrique 
Facultad de Ingeniería 
Rivera, Diego
Vergara, Fernando
Facultad de Ingeniería 
Arumí, José Luis
Dr. Tume-Zapata, Pedro 
Facultad de Ingeniería 
10.1080/02626667.2014.892205
Taylor & Francis
2014
Different sets of parameters and conceptualizations of a basin can give equally good results in terms of predefined objective functions. Therefore, a need exists to tackle equifinality and quantify the uncertainty bands of a model. In this paper we use the concepts of equifinality, identifiability and uncertainty to propose a simple method aimed at constraining the equifinal parameters and reducing the uncertainty bands of model outputs, and obtaining physically possible and reasonable models. Additionally, the uncertainty of equifinal solutions is quantified to estimate the amount by which output uncertainty can be reduced by knowing how to discard most of the equifinal solutions of a model. As a study case, a conceptual model of the Chillán basin in Chile is carried out. From the study it is concluded that using identifiability analysis makes it possible to constrain equifinal solutions with reduced uncertainty and realistic models, resulting in a framework that can be recommended to practitioners, especially due to the simplicity of the method.
Identifiability analysis
Equifinality
Uncertainty
Surface hydrology
Water balance model
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