Dr. Muñoz-Ortiz, Enrique

Due to population growth and expansion in the agricultural and industrial sectors, the demand for water has increased. However, water availability in some regions has decreased due to climate change trends and variability, necessitating innovative strategies and adaptation in water allocation to avoid conflicts among users in a hydrological system. This paper presents a resilience analysis and a conceptual hydrological modeling approach to evaluate the resilience capacity of a new water allocation rule in the Laja Lake basin in southern Chile. Resilience assessments included absorptive and adaptive capacities with four system states: resilient, susceptible, resistant, and vulnerable. A modeling approach was used considering the climate variability uncertainty and climate change trends of the Laja system. Characterization of adaptive and absorptive capacities showed that the Laja Lake basin moved from resistant to vulnerable. Hydrological modeling analyses showed that after a new water allocation agreement, the Laja Lake system is moving from vulnerable to susceptible, since the new rule has more adaptive alternatives to face climate variability. The new rule diminishes the possibilities of conflicts among users, ensuring the fulfillment of water needs for uses such as farming and ecosystem services such as landscaping, and allows for increased water allocation for energy in wet hydrological years.

Understanding the groundwater storage and release (S-Q) process and its contribution to river flows is essential for different hydrological applications, especially in periods of water scarcity. The S-Q process can be characterized based on recession parameter b, which is the slope of the power–law relationship −dQ/dt = aQb of the recession flow analysis, where recession parameter b represents the linearity of the S-Q process. In various studies, it has been found that this parameter can present high variability, which has been associated with the approach or spatial variability of basin characteristics. However, the variability of parameter b and its relationship with geology and the behavior of groundwater storage over time (evolution over time) have not been sufficiently studied. The objective of this study is to analyze the variability of recession parameter b and its relationship with geological and morphological characteristics and climate variability at different time scales. To this end, 72 drainage basins located in south central Chile were examined via recession flow analysis, considering five different time scales (5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, and 25 years). In addition, to analyze spatial variability patterns and generate groups of basins with similar characteristics, a cluster analysis was carried out. Clusters were obtained using the principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means methods. The results show that in wet periods, the slope of recession parameter b tends to increase (fast drainage process), while in dry periods, the recession slope tends to decrease (slow drainage processes). In general, the results suggest that the variability of recession coefficient b indicates changes in S-Q behavior; therefore, it could be used as an indicator of the sensitivity of a basin to climate variability.

Groundwater storage and discharge are important processes that have not yet been sufficiently studied in some parts of Chile. Additionally, in watersheds without snow cover or glaciers, groundwater storage and release are the main sources of minimum flow generation; therefore, improvements are required to characterize this process. This study aimed to use recession flow analysis to link groundwater storage depletion to the predominant geological characteristics of each watershed in order to improve our understanding of the groundwater storage-release process in 24 watersheds in south-central Chile. The results allowed different groundwater storage behaviors associated with different geological characteristics to be identified, making recession flow analysis a valuable tool for improving the representation and conceptualization of this process in order to advance toward better minimum flow predictions.

Choosing a model that suitably represents the characteristics of a watershed to simulate low flows is crucial, especially in watersheds whose main source of baseflow generation depends on groundwater storage and release. The goal of this investigation is to study the performance and representativeness of storage-release process modeling, considering aspects such as the topography and geology of the modeled watershed through regional sensitivity analysis, in order to improve low-flow prediction. To this end, four groundwater storage-release structures in various watersheds with different geological (fractured and sedimentary rock) and topographic domains (steep and gentle slopes) were analyzed. The results suggest that the two-reservoir structure with three runoff responses is suitable (better) for simulating low flows in watersheds with fractured geological characteristics and rugged or steep topography. The results also indicate that a one-reservoir model can be adequate for predicting low flows in watersheds with a sedimentary influence or flat topography.

River flooding is one of the most widespread natural disasters. Projections indicate that climate change will increase flood hazard in many areas around the world. In this study, we investigate the individual and combined effects of sea level rise, flow increase and riparian vegetation encroachment on flood hazard in the lower Biobío River, Chile. Results show that each has the potential to individually increase flood hazard in certain areas, and that individual effects can compound. Encroachment of riparian vegetation onto previously sparsely vegetated areas of the floodplain, likely a result of the Chilean megadrought, causes higher flow resistance and increased flooding during large events. Somewhat counterintuitively, drought has therefore led to an increase in flood hazard in the study area. Drought risk for most land areas across the globe is expected to increase with climate change. Potential future vegetation encroachment should therefore be included as a key variable in riverine flood hazard studies.

In the south-central zone of Chile, the Renegado River presents irregular behavior during the dry season, with dry and high-flow sections along its course at the same time. The objective of this study was to identify interactions between surface and groundwater that explain this behavior. Through a flow measurement campaign along the river, an analysis of the geological conditions of the watershed and the use of a numerical groundwater flow model, the interactions between the water table and the river were described and represented. As a result, it was identified that the combination of topography and geology given by the volcanic nature of the catchment leads the river to gain or lose surface water along its course. It is recommended that the interaction between surface and groundwater be analyzed to address hydrological design studies and water management in volcanic systems with similar characteristics