Dr. Muñoz-Ortiz, Enrique

Time-varying sensitivity analysis (TVSA) allows sensitivity in a moving window to be estimated and the time periods in which the specific components of a model can affect its performance to be identified. However, one of the disadvantages of TVSA is its high computational cost, as it estimates sensitivity in a moving window within an analyzed series, performing a series of repetitive calculations. In this article a function to implement a simple TVSA with a low computational cost using regional sensitivity analysis is presented. As an example of its application, an analysis of hydrological model results in daily, monthly, and annual time windows is carried out. The results show that the model allows the time sensitivity of a model with respect to its parameters to be detected, making it a suitable tool for the assessment of temporal variability of processes in models that include time series analysis. In addition, it is observed that the size of the moving window can influence the estimated sensitivity; therefore, analysis of different time windows is recommended.

Choosing a model that suitably represents the characteristics of a watershed to simulate low flows is crucial, especially in watersheds whose main source of baseflow generation depends on groundwater storage and release. The goal of this investigation is to study the performance and representativeness of storage-release process modeling, considering aspects such as the topography and geology of the modeled watershed through regional sensitivity analysis, in order to improve low-flow prediction. To this end, four groundwater storage-release structures in various watersheds with different geological (fractured and sedimentary rock) and topographic domains (steep and gentle slopes) were analyzed. The results suggest that the two-reservoir structure with three runoff responses is suitable (better) for simulating low flows in watersheds with fractured geological characteristics and rugged or steep topography. The results also indicate that a one-reservoir model can be adequate for predicting low flows in watersheds with a sedimentary influence or flat topography.

Depending on the purpose of the study, aggregated hydrological models are preferred over distributed models because they provide acceptable results in terms of precision and are easy to run, especially in data scarcity scenarios. To obtain acceptable results in terms of hydrological process representativeness, it is necessary to understand and assess the models. In this study, the relative importance of the parameters of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model is analyzed using sensitivity analysis to detect if the simulated processes represent the predominant hydrological processes at watershed scale. As a case study, four watersheds with different hydrological regimes (glacial and pluvial) and therefore different dominant processes are analyzed. The results show that in the case of the rivers with a glacial regime, the model performance depends highly on the snow module parameters, while in the case of the rivers with a pluvial regime, the model is sensitive to the soil and evapotranspiration modules. The results are directly related to the hydrological regime, which indicates that the HBV model, complemented by sensitivity analysis, is capable of both detecting and representing hydrological processes at watershed scale.

Granitic residual soils are soils formed by the in situ weathering of intrusive granitic rocks and are present in different parts of the world. Due to their large presence, many civil engineering projects are carried out on and within these soils. Therefore, a correct characterization of the slopes is necessary for slope stability studies. This investigation aims to study the influence of the values of geomechanical parameters (specific weight, cohesion, and friction angle) and the geometry of a slope (height and inclination) on slope stability of residual granitic soils in dry and static conditions. To this end, an automatic system was developed for the numerical study of cases using the finite element method with limit analysis. The system allows modeling, through Monte Carlo simulation and different slope configurations. With this system, the safety factors of 5000 cases were obtained. The results of the models were processed through the SAFE toolbox, performing a Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA). The results of this research concluded that the order of influence of the factors were: slope angle > slope height > cohesion > friction angle > unit weight (β > H > c > ϕ > γ).

In Chile in recent years, changes in precipitation and temperatures have been reported that could affect water resource management and planning. One way of facing these changes is studying and understanding the behavior of hydrological processes at a regional scale and their different temporal scales. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the importance of the hydrological processes of the HBV model at different temporal scales and for different hydrological regimes. To this end, 88 watersheds located in south-central Chile were analyzed using time-varying sensitivity analysis at five different temporal scales (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years). The results show that the model detects the temporality of the most important hydrological processes. In watersheds with a pluvial regime, the greater the temporal scale, the greater the importance of soil water accumulation processes and the lower the importance of surface runoff processes. By contrast, in watersheds with a nival regime, at greater temporal scales, groundwater accumulation and release processes take on greater importance, and soil water release processes are less important.

Hydrological modelling has undergone constant growth with the increase in information processing capabilities. Hydrological models have traditionally been used to study the effects of climate change on management and land-use changes and for water resources planning, among other purposes. The aim of this study was to determine and analyse the advantages of the HBV and HYMOD models, which are commonly used in hydrology on daily and monthly time scales. A regional sensitivity analysis was used to compare the processes that take on greater importance at different time scales in the two models. As a result, it was found that quick precipitation–runoff processes prove to be better represented in the HBV model, while slow, time-aggregated processes are better represented by the HYMOD model. This study confirms that both models are adequate for rain-dominated basins, such as those of the study area. Additionally, the HBV model proved to be more robust in comparison to HYMOD.